The Future of China-us Relations: Toward a New Cold War or a Restart of Strategic Cooperation?

The China-us relationship has long transcended the bilateral sphere and is of global significance and impact. With likely adjustments to American foreign policy under a new US administration, China holds expectations for the bilateral relationship. While maintaining the overall stability of economic ties, the two countries should resume collaboration in response to non-traditional security challenges and strengthen cooperation on traditional security issues.

In recent years, anti-china elements in the US have, out of selfinterest and political bias, engaged in unscrupulous smear campaigns, irrational suppression and sanctions, and even ideological confrontation against China, in an attempt to push China-us relations to the brink of a new Cold War. The China-us relationship is in its most testing time since the establishment of diplomatic relations.1 Academics differ on whether the relationship is entering a new Cold War, but all agree that it is getting colder and even carry the risk of a vicious downward spiral. As US President Joe Biden pledged to make adjustments to American foreign policy upon taking office, China holds expectations for China-us relations. In his congratulatory message to Biden on election as US President, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed hope that “the two sides will uphold the spirit of non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation, focus on cooperation, manage differences, and advance the healthy and stable development of China-us ties.”2 This article reexamines the current status of China-us relations and explores a path to restart strategic cooperation between the two sides.

The Risk of a New Cold War between China and the US

With a relative decline of US global influence, especially in Asia, and the rising influence of China, the US believes the turning point has come for global balance of power. The China-us conflict is essentially the competition for comprehensive power with the economy at its core, coupled with military pressure or military confrontation. At the economic level, the US aims to prevent China’s possible economic overtaking, leading to a dilemma between China’s legitimate demands for economic development and US attempt to stop China’s overall economic development. Meanwhile, the US seeks to establish a new international system that excludes China, leading to another dilemma between US plan to start all over again and China’s effort to maintain the existing international system.

Some anti-china forces in the US believe that the China-us conflict has characteristics similar to those of the Cold War, and a negotiation or reconciliation is almost impossible because differences between the two sides are obvious and fundamental. Militarily, they allege that China is committed to pushing US Navy and Air Force away from the Western Pacific, including the South China Sea and the East China Sea, a sphere of influence that the US will not simply concede. Economically, trade talks between the two countries have struggled to make substantial progress. Ideologically, they claim that the philosophical divide between the American and Chinese systems is becoming as great as the gap between American democracy and Soviet communism.3 “It is a strategic competition between two major powers— the established power and the emerging power—for global influence and leadership .... It is about their differences in governance and how their societies operate, which are rooted in their own histories, cultures and values.”4

5 Michael R. Pompeo, “Communist China and the Free World’s Future,” US Department of State (20172021), July 23, 2020, https://2017-2021.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future-2/index. html.

6 Edward Wong and Steven Lee Myers, “Officials Push U.s.-china Relations toward Point of No Return,” The New York Times, July 27, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/25/world/asia/us-china-trump-xi. html.

7 Michael T. Klare, “A Full-blown Cold War with China Could be Disastrous,” The Nation, June 12, 2020, https://www.thenation.com/article/world/a-full-blown-cold-war-with-china-could-be-disastrous. 8 Jacob Stokes, “Who Cares if the U.S. is in a ‘New Cold War’ with China?” United States Institute of Peace, February 26, 2020, https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/02/who-cares-if-us-new-cold-war-china. 9 China-us People-to-people Exchanges Project Team at Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, “China Can Well Handle a Possible Cold War Launched by the US,” Global Times, 2020, p.7.

10 Yao Yang, “How the US and China Can Avoid a Hot War,” Enterprise Observer, No.8, 2020, pp.74-81. 11 Adam Segal, “The Coming Tech Cold War with China: Beijing is Already Countering Washington’s Policy,” Foreign Affairs, September 9, 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-america/ 202009-09/coming-tech-cold-war-china.