Looking ahead

Libya is facing a complex situation, but some aspects are similar to those found in other countries also affected by terrorism. First, its economic situation is a complete disaster. In 2013, the rate of youth unemployment worldwide was approximately 14 percent, but in North African countries, it ranged from 18.5 percent (in Morocco) to 51 percent (in Libya). What will all these unemployed youths do in a country torn apart by turmoil? The answer is obvious: Most ISIS recruits are between age 18 and 29. Among its many disastrous effects, the breaking up of Libya will lead to the destabilization of North Africa, the Sahel and the Middle East, and even beyond.

If poor governance makes it easier for young people to fall into terrorism, foreign interventions and influences are not the lesser evil. In a transition period, such interference may be even more harmful as it hides behind the pretense of “fraternal” or “humanitarian” assistance.

Unfortunately, the two countries that could exert a positive influence in order to curb the scourge of terrorism are notably absent: Egypt, mired in a longterm struggle against the violent Muslim Brotherhood and facing a similar situation in the Sinai, and Algeria, embroiled in infighting over the succession of Abdelaziz Bouteflika and struggling with an economic crisis.

The danger is imminent. Radical Islam, supported by obscurantist sponsors enriched by petrodollars, may throw Libya, and with it Tunisia, Egypt and other African countries in a storm of violence that could last many years. (The author is an expert on international affairs with books on the Middle East/north Africa region. This is an edited version of the original article)