Trend of International Landscape Evolution and China’s Response against Backdrop of Covid-19
The outbreak and spreading of Covid-19 have greatly impacted countries all over the world, making important differences in relations among major countries, world economy and global governance. It taps the balance of major powers’ strength and changes their strategic relations, thus inevitably influences the surroundings for China's peaceful development.
COVID-19'S INFLUENCE ON DIRECTION OF INTERNATIONAL LANDSCAPE EVOLUTION
International landscape is mainly about two aspects: major countries’ strengths balance and their strategic relations, the former of which is the fundamental factor, the latter also influential on international landscape. As a sudden global crisis, Covid-19 pandemic has brought about striking changes to the balance of strengths in the international system as well as the strategic relations among major countries, which further impacts other aspects in the international system.
Firstly, Covid-19 has caused phased changing of the balance of strengths among major countries. The global pandemic strongly impacts world economy, but all countries are not receiving the same result. Consequently, the structure of strength within the international system has changed. According to the World Economic Outlook updated in June, 2020 by IMF, the world GDP is predicted to drop by 4.9%, registering the most serious yearly slump since the Great Depression. Considering the global pandemic is still in process, the final loses of world economy remain a question, which may be even worse than the prediction.
China is the first country to receive the tremendous impact of Covid-19. But China stopped the spreading of the virus in a relatively short period of time by taking the most strict prevention measures, shifted to normalized prevention and control against the disease and fully promoted the resumption of production on these basis.
Covid-19 also strongly and continuously strikes the economy of the United States, shown by that its stock exchange tripped circuit breaker four times within 10 days from March 9 to 18, 2020, together with the rocketing of unemployment since the month. Washington’s handling of the coronavirus is of many problems and mistakes, such as CDC’s test kit failure due to contamination, short supply of urgently needed medical necessities, disordered federal and state policies, blame game between the two parties, and massive substantial difficulties. They expose shortest rims of the most powerful country on this planet and the vulnerability of its economic and financial system and diminished international community’s confidence in US capability and reliability.
Secondly, Covid-19 negatively affects US international image and strategic credibility, undermining its leadership in international affairs. Since March 2020, the problems and mistakes of Washington is unimaginable in the context of history. US has registered much more cases and deaths than any other country and is still struggling in the failure to stop the virus’ wide spread after a long time, which contradicts to people’s impression of US as the most powerful and the most technologically advanced country, damaging US’ international image. When US was short of material supply, it grabbed other countries’ all over the world, its international image being broken. US government constantly attempts to blame China,
WHO and other sides for its own failure to combat the virus, which brings negative effects to both anti-coronavirus international cooperation and its own international credibility.
In the over 70 years since the end of World War II, the US has enjoyed its dominance of the world for long. However, its performance completely fails other countries’ expectation. Today, it is its own doings other than any other country’s uprising that inflict the most damages upon its leadership to the world. It takes both American willingness and American capability to assume the leading role in the world against the backdrop of the world’s total war against Covid-19. For example, the US should offer masks, ventilators, PPE and other material supplies, as well as effective clinical solution and medicines, while encouraging other countries by showing strong will of American medical personnel.
The waning of American leadership during the handling of coronavirus, the global crises, is embodied in two aspects. On one hand, it failed to promote international cooperation within multilateral mechanisms like UN, G20 and G7, not to mention reversing the deteriorating situation of the global pandemic through cooperation. On the other, countries all over the world, seldom turned to the US for help. Even its closest allies like the UK, Canada, Australia and Japan can hardly get any substantial assistance from it. Even though the situation in those countries improves, it’s not derived from cooperation with the US.
Thirdly, the pandemic greatly impacts strategic relations of major countries, the most outstanding being the continued deteriorating of ChinaUS relations. Under the pandemic, the US keeps exerting strategic pressure on China by constant reconnaissance and provocative military activities at the China's most difficult time to deal with the disease, its aircraft carrier “Roosevelt” sailing through South China Sea to visit Vietnam. It tried to add on China's security pressure when China was under the attack of Covid-19, attempting to find weak point of China's military by testing its strength in time of crisis. Malicious behavior as such completely betray American strategic intention against China.
Facing the strategic competition between China and the US, European countries now have more complicated mentality and attitude. Since 2017, Trump administration has sent a series of blows to international order under the slogan of “America First”, undermining the relations between the US and European countries time and time again. The pandemic has exposed their divergence to an even larger extent and lowered the level of mutual trust and cooperation. Meanwhile, when the balance of strength between international systems is tilting toward the East,
almost all western countries become highly sensitive to the rise of China’s influence. When it comes to handling of the epidemic, they'd rather accept Korean mode, Japanese mode or Singaporean mode, other than recognize China’s practice. That’s where many western countries’ contradictive mentality comes from: they are discontent about some of American practices but mentally unready to see China play a leading role globally. Nevertheless, China’s efficiency in combating the virus domestically and contribution to international cooperation objectively causes impact on many westerners’ feelings.
Besides, the pandemic has witnessed the setback of the development of multilateralism and insufficient function of international organizations. Global governance is faced with greater challenges and power politics are gaining dominance. Since Trump assumed office, “America First” has become the guiding principle of his handling international affairs. Instead of setting the long-term stability of international order as a major goal of American foreign policy, his administration prioritizes national interests, especially those short-term, material and everyone-can-see interests. In order to maximize short-term interests, Trump administration completely reversed American attitude to international organization and multilateralism. International organizations and multilateral mechanisms see the weakening of their power of constraint on the US, while existing international rules are receiving indiscriminate violations by its government. When Covid-19 is spreading, in spite of that the world is in desperate need of international cooperation which is generally in accordance with the interests of the US, Trump administration still takes negative attitude toward international cooperation. It not only caused the out-of-control of American domestic situation, but also disabled WHO, the most important international organization combating the pandemic, rendering it paralyzed to coordinate and organize international efforts against Covid-19.
MAJOR APPROACHES FOR CHINA TO RESPOND TO NEW CHANGES IN INTERNATIONAL LANDSCAPE
In the backdrop of the spread of Covid-19, the changes in the balance of major states’ strength and their strategic relations make China’s external environment for peaceful development more complex. China needs to proceed on its own strength building-up as well as promoting international cooperation against Covid-19. While seeking generally stable China-US relations for a long run, China also must strengthen cooperation with neighboring countries in aspects such as the chain of value and non-traditional security, continue to advocate multilateralism, contribute more to international organizations, and safeguard the stability of international order.
Firstly, China must manage to build up its strength while promoting multilateralism and international cooperation. When nationalism and power politics are on the rise, multilateralism and international organizations meeting setback, by increasing self-reliant survival and development ability of industrial chain and actively promoting industrial chain cooperation with neighboring countries, especially with ASEAN, Japan and Korea under the framework of “10+3”, China can better offset negative effects by US’ potential hard “decoupling” in the field of high technology.
Covid-19 has severely impacted world economy and global industrial chain, eroding the root of countries’ capability to ensure their security. Abrupt and rampant pandemic has given an unimaginable heavy blow to global industrial chain. It serves as new lessons to the world: first, former global division of work produced supply chains which are too long and dispersed, any weak link possibly leading to suspended producing; second, backups and substitutes are necessary for key links in the industrial chain in order to increase industrial chains’ resilience against external impacts and secure normal productivity in crisis. The pandemic greatly enlightens countries about risk and crisis. Some countries will try to streamline their industrial chain, which means the tendency of regionalization of global industrial chain in the future.
Secondly, China must improve the quality of its partnership by reinforcing international cooperation against Covid-19. High-level strategic partnership is based on high-level strategic trust, which is usually fostered under special conditions and consolidated by cruel material ordeal. In the relatively tranquil world after the Cold War, China and its partners mostly focused on winwin economic cooperation but seldom faced shared difficulties.
Today, China’s shoulder-to-shoulder cooperation with many countries to combat Covid-19 and overcome the crisis plays irreplaceable role in consolidating its friendship with some countries. This shared challenge sheds light on China’s unique diplomacy for the world, helps other countries to better evaluate China’s capability to overcome crisis, see China’s resolution to continuously cooperate with other countries when itself
The pandemic greatly enlightens countries about risk and crisis. Some countries will try to streamline their industrial chain, which means the tendency of regionalization of global industrial chain in the future.
is faced with tremendous difficulty, and profoundly understand China’s highly stable attitude toward international cooperation. The concept of cooperation that has been upheld by China for long has fully shown its connotation. China’s “saying less, doing more” practice, together with its indiscriminating assistance to other countries to combat Covid-19, has displayed the right outlook on the choice between righteousness and interests and enriched the connotation of building a community with a shared future for humanity, which contributes to some countries’ stronger confidence in cooperation with China.
Thirdly, China must seek for generally stable China-US relations from a far-sighted prospect. China should neither easily compromise to the US strategic pressure, nor actively escalate the conflict with US in the circumstance where China-US strategic competition is on the rise. To some extent, the differences in China and US’ performance in combating the virus worsen the American strategy community’s anxiety about China’s growing strength, making the community include more confronting mentality to US’ China policy. In this situation, China’s US policy must accord with its long-term fundamental interests, slow the escalation of strategic competition, and facilitate positive changes for China-US relations.
Although the US believes China’s rise challenges its global leadership, the stability of their relations answers to important interests of both countries. Because China has been upholding the concepts of peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefit, actively developing diplomatic ties with all countries and possessing an important status in global industrial chain, it’s unfeasible for the US to comprehensively contain or “decouple” with China. Though some American officials have strong political will to “decouple” with China in the field of high technology, they have to face the high price the US has to pay for its decisive policy to realize true “decoupling” with China in that field.
Fourthly, China must reinforce cooperation with neighboring countries over non-traditional issues to improve surrounding security environment. China is rising and regional order is at the brink of profound transition in AsiaPacific. At this point, the US deliberately manipulates hotspot issues around to exert strategic pressure on China. With the possibility that China-US strategic competition aggravates, the strategic pressure may spill over to the region in the future. Under this condition, renewed cooperation with neighboring countries on non-traditional issues is much more important than ever for restraint of negative effects to regional security by alliance politics, Indo-Pacific strategy and confrontation of major countries, consolidation of mutual trust between neighboring countries, and improvement of regional security status.
While Covid-19 brings security challenge to the region as a non-traditional security threat, it invents new motivation and opportunity for regional security cooperation. Specially, it alters China’s neighboring countries’ understanding of the main origin of threat and the better measure to cope with it. In Post Pandemic era, China can join hands with ASEAN and other countries to explore cooperation on non-traditional security issues, focusing on solutions to their non-traditional security problems, in order to improve the collective ability to deal with non-traditional security threats.
Fifthly, China must safeguard the stability of existing international order by actively support international organizations’ functioning from the prospect of maintaining multilateralism and the international system with UN as its core. Covid-19’s spread and frequent extreme weathers have proved the significance of global cooperation. However, since 2017, Trump administration has given heavy blows to existed international systems and rules, drastically increasing uncertainty of existing systems and seriously affected the stability of international order. In the backdrop of global pandemic of Covid-19, Trump administration continues “America First” policy and puts it into action in a more extreme way, instead of advocating international cooperation and assuming the leading role in global combat against the pandemic. Because of Trump administration’s policy, western countries see no leader in their battle against the pandemic and have to fight all by themselves, the results of their fighting remaining pessimistic.
The purpose of global governance is better coping with various global challenges in order to promote welfare of all countries. However, Trump administration stands only for American interests, mainly care about whether it can benefit from global governance and even interpret the two major countries’ role in global governance from the prospect of transition of power. If its policy continues to origin from that prospect, global governance will face even bigger challenges in the future. When the US is constantly damaging international organizations and the international order, China’s active support to the well-functioning of international organizations accords with most of the countries’ interests and needs. China is working hard for the peace, development and order of the world, thus becoming more important to international order. For that reason, China can actively explore ways more easily accepted by international community, so as to play its constructive role in maintaining the stability of international order more efficiently.
While Covid-19 brings security challenge to the region as a nontraditional security threat, it invents new motivation and opportunity for regional security cooperation.