Cooperation between China and ASEAN in Post Pandemic Era: Prospects and Challenges
As the most serious public health emergency since the end of World War II, Covid-19 has seriously disrupted the normal production and living order of the people and the global economic and social development, and profoundly affected the present and future world structure and international order. East Asia and Southeast Asia are among the first regions impacted by the pandemic, and are also the first regions to carry out international cooperation against the pandemic and achieve considerable results. The world is facing great changes not seen in a century. The international situation, featuring most prominently full uncertainty, will be more complex and confusing in the post pandemic era, and the cooperation between China and ASEAN will face even more new challenges. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized that “danger and opportunity always co-exist with each other. Danger, once overcome, turns into opportunity.” New opportunities for cooperation between China and ASEAN have emerged in the face of difficulties, and the prospects for cooperation will be even broader.
Implications of Covid-19 for China-ASEAN Relations
Covid-19 has seriously affected the normal production and living order of both China and the ASEAN countries as well as resulted in implications for the development of China-ASEAN relations.
First, the sensitivity of interdependence has been highlighted, and the political and security cooperation between China and ASEAN has been strengthened. Since the complete establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area in 2010, China and ASEAN have formed a strong economic interdependence.The global financial crisis in 2008 highlighted the sensitivity of economic interdependence between China and the ASEAN countries. Since then, the economic and trade cooperation between both sides has been further upgraded. The outbreak of Covid-19 once again shows the strong sensibility existed between China and the ASEAN countries in nonconventional security field. Thailand as the country right after China that reported the confirmed Covid-19 cases is the first one to join hands with China in fighting the pandemic, while ASEAN is the first regional international organization to cooperate with China on pandemic prevention and control. Within the framework of “10 + 1” and “10 + 3”, China and ASEAN have held a number of high-level dialogues on anti-pandemic cooperation. The topics covered not only the prevention and control of Covid-19, but also non-conventional security issues such as public health safety, humanitarian relief, economic and financial security.
Second, the economic and trade ties between China and ASEAN are even closer against the backdrop that the regional economy suffers from the impact of Covid-19. Tourism is the pillar industry that many ASEAN countries develop in priority, and China and the ASEAN countries are important tourist source markets and destinations for each other. After the outbreak of the pandemic, China and the ASEAN countries have taken more stringent exit and entry control measures, resulting in serious damage to tourism and regional economy. Trade, retail and other service sectors were also hit hard, and the sup
ply chain and industrial chain between China and ASEAN were seriously impacted as well. In the face of the impact of Covid-19, China and ASEAN have paid special attention to maintaining the stability and development of bilateral economic and trade cooperation. As a result of the joint efforts, bilateral economic and trade cooperation has achieved growth in difficult situation, and ASEAN became China’s largest trading partner for the first time in the first quarter of 2020.
Third, as a result of the Covid-19 interference in the social order, the ASEAN people have more divergent perception of China. Since the outbreak of Covid-19, China has made active efforts in fighting the pandemic, allowing its neighbouring countries enough time for preparing. China’s neighbouring countries, including the ASEAN countries, generally acknowledge and support China’s efforts and contributions. Since the outbreak of the pandemic in Southeast Asia, China has provided a large number of medical materials and technical assistance to ASEAN countries, and has sent medical expert groups to many ASEAN countries. The governments and non-governmental organizations of the ASEAN countries speak highly of China’s sense of responsibility as a major country. Yet at the same time, there exists some discordant voices among the people of ASEAN countries. Because of the serious impact of Covid-19 on the economic and social order of the ASEAN countries, the forces inciting anti-China sentiment have risen. The social stereotype caused by group cognitive bias is magnified by the Covid-19 situation. Some ASEAN countries which have experienced AntiChinese incidents in history are repeating their old tune.
Fourth, the United States spares no efforts to incite some ASEAN countries, resulting in new frictions with China in the South China Sea. Out of concerns about China’s rising influence and need to divert domestic attention, the U.S. authorities on the one hand try their best to discredit China’s achievements in fighting against Covid-19, and on the other hand, intensify their efforts to stir up troubles around China.
Since early April, some research institutions, media and government officials in the U.S. have done their utmost to exaggerate the fallacy of “the droughts in countries along the lower Mekong River caused by China’s river blocking”. The U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo made a statement on April 22 after the ASEAN-U.S. ministerial meeting on Covid-19, claiming that he was concerned about “China’s operation at the dam of Mekong upstream”. However, the U.S. has not received any official response from the Mekong countries, but the public opinion in some countries has been bewitched by the United States. At the same time, the South China Sea witnessed turbulence again, and the U.S. took the opportunity to intervene wantonly in an attempt to alienate some ASEAN countries from China.
Prospect of China-ASEAN Cooperation in Post Pandemic Era
As a continuation of the current good momentum, the post pandemic cooperation between China and ASEAN in the fields of political security, economy and trade, society and humanities has broad prospects.
First, with the regional governance level being further improved, ChinaASEAN community with a shared future will enjoy a stable and far-reaching development. In the face of the global crisis, no country can be safe alone. The world is in urgent need of a global, overall and all-round governance framework. However, it is expected that after the outbreak, regional integration will become the major form of globalization and therefore regional governance, the first priority of global governance. The community with a shared future for mankind is exactly the “China scheme” for global governance put forward by China based on the demands of the entire mankind under the profound changes that have not taken place in a century. Accordingly, building a regional community with a shared future is the solution for regional governance within this framework. In the post pandemic era, the level of regional coordination between China and ASEAN is expected to be further uplifted, the regional governance system guided by China-ASEAN community with a shared future will be further improved, the formulation of new regional norms and the building of regional order will be more focused on regional governance, and the supply structure of regional international public goods will be further optimized. The regional cooperation between China and ASEAN will probably become a new model of regional governance and will promote the innovation and optimization of global governance system.
Second, the status of non-conventional security cooperation was further improved, and health cooperation promoted cooperation in various fields. Once an issue being linked with security means that it is raised as an “existed threat”, requiring urgent measures, and it is proved that these measures, even though beyond the normal limits of political procedures, are justified. The speed, broadness, intensity and persistence of the spread of Covid-19 are all together reminding us of the importance to treat it as a security issue. Against the backdrop of peace and development still being the theme of the times, the status of non-conventional security in the post pandemic era has been further improved, and the cooperation of biosafety and public health security will become new growth points of non-conventional security cooperation between China and ASEAN. Compared with terrorism, web security, energy security and other non-conventional security issues, biosafety and public health security issues with low political sensitivity are easier for cooperation and early harvesting. At the same time, public health cooperation can promote cooperation among countries in other fields through “topic relevance”. Based on strengthening cooperation in biosafety and public health security, China and ASEAN are expected to make breakthroughs in non-conventional security cooperation
in various fields.
Third, with industrial and value chains being optimized and reshaped, the economic binding relationship between China and the ASEAN countries is deepened. The fragility and instability risk of economic and trade brought about by long division chain and overdetailed industrial division are fully exposed in the pandemic situation. In the post pandemic era, the pattern of world economic division of labor is facing restructuring, global industrial chain and value chain will shrink over a certain period of time, and the economic division chain is expected to be integrated towards regionalization. In specific, the transfer of the overall industrial chain is relatively difficult, and the transfer of local industrial chain of subdivided industries will become the mainstream; the barriers of low-end industrial transfer will continue to decrease, and the ends of industrial chain and value chain will be scattered in more emerging economies. Southeast Asia countries, especially the continental ones, have better performance in Covid-19 prevention and control. It is expected that the East and Southeast Asian countries will take the lead in getting out of difficulty by resuming production and trade before the end of pandemic, and thus form a more closely linked regional production network and market. The contraction of the industrial chains in Japan, ROK and other countries at the high end of the value chain coincides with China’s demand for industrial upgrading. The ASEAN countries, in particular those in the Mekong River Basin, have remarkably improved their ability of undertaking China’s industrial transfer. In the post pandemic era, it is expected to form a regional economic division chain centering on China, covering Eastern Asia and radiating the entire world.
Fourth, as a result of the strengthening public diplomacy and people-topeople exchanges, the popular support for China-ASEAN cooperation has been continuously consolidated. Public diplomacy covers all kinds of dialogues other than government-to-government diplomacy, including all kinds of direct exchanges between official and nongovernmental or between non-governmental and non-governmental, either in bilateral or in multilateral ways. The pandemic has brought about a brief halt to traditional exchanges between China and ASEAN as well as between China and ASEAN countries, and at the same time has stimulated more exchanges and interactions in diversified forms, channels and contents. Since the outbreak of Covid-19, China, ASEAN and the ASEAN countries have provided huge amount of material assistance to each other through both official and non-governmental channels. China also sent a number of medical teams and expert groups to some ASEAN countries. At the same time, people from all countries encouraged the parties fighting the pandemic with recording and disseminating sound and video messages, which further enhanced peopleto-people connectivity.
In the post pandemic era, China can take on the responsibility of a major country in promoting the building of the “Health Silk Road” with health diplomacy as the key point and call for building a community of health for mankind. In that way, the public diplomacy with Chinese characteristics oriented to people-to-people connectivity will be further expanded and consolidated, so as to make China-ASEAN cooperation even more deepening and substantial.
Challenges Faced by China-ASEAN Cooperation in Post Pandemic Era
The post pandemic era will witness a broad prospect and bright future for China-ASEAN cooperation. However, there are quite a few potential risks and challenges that should not be neglected.
First, with the U.S. strategic competition against China being upgraded in an all-round way, the ASEAN countries may once again face the problem of “taking side”. With the development of its domestic state of pandemic, the U.S. authorities wantonly “stigmatized” China and tried to make China the scapegoat, rendering a new “China Threat Theory” all over the world. The United States has stepped up its strategic competition against China in an all-round way, intensified its competition and confrontation in various fields including military, economy, science and technology, information and global order, and started to lay out strategic competition for the post pandemic era. In The United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China released on the White House website on May 20, the U.S. has slandered China’s legitimate military activities in its surrounding waters and the Belt and Road initiative, and listed them as the security challenges facing the United States. It can be predicted that the U.S. will further upgrade geopolitical confrontation and intensify its layout in China’s surrounding areas, including Southeast Asia. The intention and means of the U.S. to win over Southeast Asian countries against China will make the ASEAN countries once again face the problem of “taking side”, and some ASEAN countries may swing back and forth between China and the United States.
Second, with the economic situation of some ASEAN countries being deteriorated, they may have disputes with China over the debt issue. Most ASEAN countries are developing countries, and are still in the early stage of economic development. They are highly dependent on overseas capital and market. The sound development of the enterprises in these countries depends heavily on the matching of external demand curve and internal supply curve. The insufficient demand caused by the pandemic in Europe and the U.S. has resulted in the overcapacity in the ASEAN countries, and further raised the debt risk of their domestic enterprises. China is the largest source of investment for Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and other ASEAN countries, and is also one of the most important sources of investment for ASEAN. Creditor’s rights investment accounts for a considerable proportion of China’s investment in ASEAN. The debt risk of ASEAN countries will have a certain negative impact on China-ASEAN cooperation. On the basis of implementing the G20 initiative for suspension of debt service payments for the poorest countries, China can work with debtor countries to explore ways for properly handling debt problems and resolving debt risks through international assistance and third-party market cooperation.
Third, with the possibility of recurrent outbreaks, ASEAN economies may be suspended and restarted for a few times. Looking back in history we could see recurrent outbreaks of major epidemics, so Covid-19 pandemic will probably show up once again. The World Health Organization said at a press conference on May 25 that it is necessary to be alert to the second wave of the pandemic. Since mid-May this year, some ASEAN countries have gradually deregulated and their economic activities have gradually recovered. This can be seen from the night light remote sensing data achieved from the satellites. However, by comparing with the data of new cases, it can be found that the number of new cases in some countries has a strong positive correlation with the intensity of night light, and the number of new cases in countries including Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia has increased with the intensity of night light. This means that before the adoption of final solution to the pandemic, some ASEAN countries with lower level of medical and health care may enter a cycle of “improvement of pandemic situation - deregulation (economic recovery) - deterioration of pandemic situation - strengthening control (economic downturn) - improvement of pandemic situation”, and the economy may be suspended and restarted for several times. The dual problems of economic recovery and Covid-19 prevention and control faced by the ASEAN countries may also have implications to the economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN.
In addition, the phenomenon of “making China the scapegoat” is spreading to Southeast Asia, and anti-China sentiments among the people in some countries have risen. With the state of pandemic in the U.S. getting increasingly serious, American politicians continue to increase their accusations against China, trying to shirk their responsibilities and scapegoating China, and even threaten to “claim compensation” from China. The behavior of the U.S. authorities has been denied and criticized by many international organizations, including the United Nations and the World Health Organization, as well as by countries actively fighting the pandemic. However, with the spread of the pandemic, the behaviors of “stigmatizing China”, “scapegoating China” and “claiming compensation” have been exploited by those with ulterior motives, and gradually spread from North America to many parts of the world, and Southeast Asia is also showing signs.
All in all, China-ASEAN relations have generally moved forward during since the outbreak. Having made joint efforts in fighting the pandemic, China and ASEAN will enjoy even more solid and broader cooperation, and the foundation for building a community with a shared future between China and ASEAN has been further consolidated. Under the guidance of Xi Jinping’s thought of building socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, by adhering to bottom-line thinking, maintaining strategic determination, sticking to the overall situation and tackling challenges calmly, China will surely better promote exchanges and cooperation with ASEAN in the post pandemic era.