International Order and East Asian Regional Cooperation in the Post pandemic Era
Since the early 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, various countries and regions across the globe have been in face of unprecedented severe challenges. Under the impact of the outbreak, East Asian countries have successively taken strict prevention and control measures and ensure security for East Asian production network through a joint prevention and control mechanism. Not only has the COVID-19 outbreak brought about drastic impact on the world economy, but it also facilitates further changes on East Asian power pattern and carries far reaching effects on the East Asian regional order.
COVID-19 Pandemic Poses New Challenges to the International Order
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy exceeds that of the world economic crisis of 1929 and that of the international financial crisis of 2008. The pandemic has not only drastically impacted the system of global production, leading to extensive recession of the world economy, but also to a certain degree broken the existing pattern of international forces, producing profound and far-reaching effects on the international order as a whole.
First, the world economy has been impacted, with the further intensification of unbalanced development. Affected by the outbreak, productive activities of most of the global economies have been forced to a standstill, where enterprises of various countries, particularly small and mid-sized ones suffer from severe impact, are faced with gigantic pressure on cash flow, and lay off tens of millions of workers. Some of the developing countries face increasing fiscal pressure, low-income families there having to cut back on consumption by a large measure, and the gap between the rich and poor in those societies being widened further. According to the World Bank (WB), measure by the poverty standard of US$5.5 per dim, it is estimated that the pandemic will have added a new poverty population of 177 million people, a bulk of them being concentrated in the East Asia-Pacific region. Due to less than effective pandemic control, global per capita income will decrease by 20 percent, and the population struggling on the poverty line will increase to 434 million people. To date, over 100 countries the world over have applied for assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The outbreak of the pandemic has left the world even more unbalanced, and in particular developing countries are faced with even more challenges with their development environment.
Second, globalization suffers a major setback. There are quite a few uncertainties in the international pattern. Over the past decades, economic globalization had facilitated transnational flow of production factors, making the world economy a closely connected entity. However, since the pandemic outbreak, the transnational flow of goods, people and capital has been greatly impeded, severely disrupting the process of globalization. For instance, European countries have acted on their own free will in face of the outbreak, some of the measures they took even conflicting with one another, and almost become a dissolving force of globalization. Closure of national borders by various countries has seriously affected global production system and the pattern of the supply
chain, which not only disrupts modus operandi of global optimum allocation of various component factors of production but also enhances populist tendency and self-seclusion of some of the countries. On the global level, the pandemic this time around overlaps with measures for reversal of globalization, producing significant effects on allotment of global resources and making the evolution of international pattern full of uncertainties.
Third, the importance of nontraditional security issues like public health is on the rise. The global spread of the outbreak has led to the international community to set great store by the governance of non-traditional security issues. Comparing with traditional security issues, non-traditional security issues cover a broad spectrum that includes contagious diseases, economic and financial security, terrorism, environmental security, illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and cyber security. Against the background of globalization, non-traditional security issues pose serious challenges to world development and human survival. The pandemic this time around involves a population of 85 percent of the world total, affecting the GDP of economies and international trade that count for more than 96 percent of the world total. The Global Economic Prospects 2020 released by the WB estimates that the global GDP of 2020 will be contracted by 5.2 percent. The COVID pandemic has become the greatest systemic threat to the global economic system since the end of World War II. In the post pandemic era, the importance of nontraditional security issues like public health will increase further in global governance.
Fourth, the pandemic has exposed many a problem in global governance like less than sufficient coordination of international organizations. The global governance system is a landmark development into the 21st century of the post war international order, relying on the creation and development of international mechanisms. The pandemic this time around has not only seriously interfered with normal international economic and trade activities but also drastically impacted the global governance system. The prevention and control of the outbreak should have necessitated joint efforts of international organizations and various countries across the globe. However, relevant international cooperation has yet to take place after long delay. To varying extent, the main vehicles of current global governance like the United Nations (UN) and the G20 have shown their shortfalls and defects. Affected by US withdrawal and
major country competition, it is even more difficult for the World Health Organization (WHO) to fully function as a specialized international body. The pandemic has shaken the confidence of various countries in conducting international cooperation and mutually providing public goods to one another and resulted in inevitable major readjustment in the area of global governance. At present, the model of depending on major countries for the supply of public goods can hardly be sustained, and what forms to take for the next phrase is a common subject in face of all countries.
Fifth, Western countries will advance a world economic rebalance strategy mainly featuring “reindustrialization”. After the end of the World War II, developed countries in the West gradually transferred their low-end industrial chain to developing countries while focusing their own energy on technological research and development and innovation industries with high added value, bringing into place an economic development model that heavily depends on the system of the international division of labor. Meanwhile, China has succeeded in accepting industries transferred from developed countries and developing itself into the center of global manufacturing in the system of the international division of labor. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, the existing development model has shown more and more risks of breaking the supply chain, as developed countries in the West are profoundly examining the fragility of their supply chain and reevaluating the issue of their high dependence on “Made in China”. In the post pandemic era, it is necessary for developed countries in the West to promote the reversed flow of part of the industrial chain and to implement an international economic rebalance strategy featuring in the main “reindustrialization”. Such major strategic readjustments may result in the fact that the tendency of “reversed globalization” in some of the industries will be more remarkable, seriously affecting the effects of “learning through exports”, “upward learning curve” and “spillovers of technological transfer” inherent in export-lead strategy applied by developing countries and emerging
economies.
Changes in East Asian Regional Order in the Post pandemic Era
The outbreak of coronavirus is ferocious. However, East Asian countries have relatively early taken tailor-made prevention and control measures and better controlled domestic outbreak. The policies of East Asian countries against the pandemic will directly affect their status in the pattern of reallotment of global resources at present and in the future. In the post pandemic era, marked changes will happen to the comprehensive national strength of East Asian countries, and the East Asian regional order will be readjusted correspondingly.
First, the change of balance of power will facilitate the readjustment of the power structure in the East Asian region. In comparison with Western countries, the conditions of East Asian countries fighting the pandemic are relatively better, and the comprehensive national strength of East Asia as a whole and that of individual East Asian countries have improved markedly. According to the Global Economic Prospects released by the WB, the growth rate of the US in 2020 is anticipated to be minus 6.1 percent, and in comparison that of East Asian countries such as Vietnam, Myanmar, China and Laos will be 2.8 percent, 1.5 percent, 1.0 percent and 1.0 percent respectively. Though some of the East Asian countries like Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand may have negative growth, their economic growth rate will be far higher than that of the US.
Though the US does not belong to East Asia in geographical terms, considering the factors of power distribution, history and culture, export market, and owing to the fact that it has long been involved in strategic interaction and order construction, it is regarded by East Asian countries as a “resident power” possessing an important interest in the East Asian region and having a major influence on the East Asian pattern of power. The pandemic this time around has severely impacted the important influence of the US on the construction of East Asian regional order, further pushing the country to pay more attention to its own domestic affairs and reduce its supply of public goods for international security in the East Asian region. At the same time, the comprehensive national strength of some of the East Asian countries has improved relatively, pushing the East Asian power pattern to move from unipolarity to multipolarity.
Second, the intensification of major country contest has complicated the East Asian regional order. As the most important country beyond the region of East Asia, the US has stuck to the “America First” unilateralist logic and measures in the global fight against the pandemic, and kept slandering China by means of politicization and stigmatization, resulting in the intensification of US-China strategic competition. Making use of its influence in the East Asian region, the US is forcing East Asian countries to take sides between China and the US which makes them very uncomfortable. The US has kept calling on the outside world to reorganize industrial chain, advancing the so-called security policy of the domestic industrial chain, making China-US industries face the risk of “decoupling”. At present, East Asian countries are in close cooperation with China and reluctant to be swayed by the will of American power. Under the pandemic, intensified ChinaUS contest has made relations between East Asian countries and the East Asian regional situation still more complex.
It is worth noting that in the process of fighting the pandemic China and Japan have maintained stable bilateral relations. To be more effective in prevention and control of the outbreak, the two governments have actively consulted one another for countermeasures, and people’s organizations of both countries have mutually provided assistance to one another, bearing positive significance for further developing China-Japan relations. However, there remain some difficulties and challenges between the two countries. For instance, impacted by the pandemic, Japan considers further readjusting its global industrial and supply chain. Besides it is under gigantic pressure to “take a side” between China and the US. Therefore, it calls for unremitting efforts to maintain the healthy and stable development of China-Japan relations.
Third, the pandemic has furthered the institutional construction of East Asian regional governance. During the outbreak, East Asian economies have conducted consultation and cooperation, which brings about new opportunities for institutional construction of East Asian regional governance. In April 2020, the ASEAN countries and China, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) held an extraordinary summit on fighting COVID-19. At the meeting attending countries vowed under the 10+3 mechanism to ensure food security, maintain smooth and sustained operation of logistic network, and enhance the tenacity and sustainability of East Asian regional supply chain. On June 4, 2020, the ASEAN and China, Japan and the ROK held an extraordinary conference of economic and trade ministers, reiterating the position of the 10 plus 3 countries making joint efforts to meet the challenge of the outbreak. In the process of coping with the pandemic this time around, East Asian countries have adopted a process-oriented route of advancing institutional construction by practice. As institutional practices on the level of experience, East Asian countries have adopted a developmentoriented, gradual, multi-tiered interaction and equality and inclusive method with important demonstrative effects for deepening and improving the East Asian regional cooperation mechanisms in the future.
East Asian Regional Cooperation in the Post pandemic Era
The COVID-19 pandemic has successively impacted East Asia, the European Union (EU) and North American regions as global economic centers and hubs of industrial chain, whose effects still linger on. In the post pandemic era, East Asian countries should continue to strengthen economic and trade cooper
ation, safeguard East Asian production system and production network, and jointly promote East Asian economic prosperity.
First, East Asian countries should further enhance political mutual trust, and reduce interference in East Asian cooperation by external factors. Against the backdrop of slowdown in the global economy, reversal of globalization, and rise of populist ideas, the pandemic has to a large measure increased the possibility of the global economy sinking into a serious recession, and left East Asian industrial chain with the risk of being broken. In face of the pandemic, East Asian economies have already become a “community of common destiny”, and now is the opportune moment for East Asian economies to repair and improve their relations comprehensively. In the post pandemic era, it is necessary for East Asian countries to enhance political mutual trust and interaction, continue to consolidate and develop bilateral and multilateral relations in the East Asian region, and deepen cooperation on East Asian regional affairs. It is necessary for East Asian countries to keep down the interference of external factors on regional cooperation and, on the basis of endogenous demand of their respective social and economic interests, to jointly promote win-win cooperation in order to achieve economic growth, social stability and prosperity of the East Asian region.
Second, it is necessary to accelerate the process of East Asian regional economic and trade cooperation like the negotiations for China-Japan-ROK free trade agreement. In order to guarantee the sustainable development of East Asian production network, it is necessary for the East Asian region to quicken the pace of the process of economic integration, transform itself from a base of manufacturing to one of manufacturing and consumption to give rise to endogenous dynamics for growth in the East Asian region. It is necessary for East Asian countries to push for early conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), and meanwhile to accelerate the process of the talks for China-JapanROK free trade area, and to facilitate a new pattern of regional open-up. In particular, a China-Japan-ROK free trade area would not only help further optimize East Asian regional resource allocation and enhance regional resistance to external impact but also help the East Asian region to forge an important global manufacturing center in heavy industrial areas like car, semiconductor, shipbuilding and petrochemical industries and construct an East Asian regional market. China, Japan and the ROK may go by the principle of “sequential progress from easy part to hard part”, adopt various forms including “early harvest program”, framework agreement, and bilateral and trilateral investment agreement, jointly consult and construct a free trade area, and consolidate and maintain sustainable development of regional economy through institutionalized cooperation.
Third, it is necessary to further raise the level of normalization and institutionalization of cooperation in nontraditional security area. To cope with the COVID-19 outbreak, people’s organizations and groupings of China, Japan and the ROK mutually provide one another with medical supplies, displaying in a profound way the spirit of mutually looking out for one another. The experience of mutual help and cooperation of East Asian economies against pandemics illustrates that it is highly necessary to construct a community of nontraditional security. From signing of the Join Action Plan against Contagious Diseases to coordinated action against SARS and Ebola, and on to coordinated handling of MRS, China, Japan and the ROK had laid a solid foundation for cooperation in multiple areas of public health and prevention and control of contagious diseases with a fine prospect of cooperation. In the future, East Asian countries may gradually deepen cooperation on non-traditional issues like environmental protection, anti-terrorism, information security and public health, try to normalize and institutionalize their interaction in non-traditional security areas, and further expand the foundation of their common interest.
Fourth, it is necessary to advance East Asian regional people-to-people exchange and cooperation. In the process of fighting against the pandemic, East Asian countries have displayed the “East Asian cultural commonality” that is categorically different from the West, providing an important social and cultural foundation for joint prevention and control of the pandemic. In the post pandemic era, it is necessary for East Asian countries to continue expanding people-to-people exchange and enhancing mutual cultural understanding. For the whole year of 2019, Japan attracted 31.88 million visits of foreign tourists, among which 9.594 million visits were Chinese. And Chinese tourists made 6.023 million visits to the ROK. In terms of the exchange of talents, by the end of 2019, there were 71 thousand ROK students studying in China and 60 thousand Chinese students studying in the ROK, both figures occupying the first place of overseas students in either of the countries. People-to-people exchange between China and the ASEAN has been thriving. China has become the largest origin of tourists to the ASEAN, more than 200 thousand overseas students are mutually sent by both sides to one another. China has begun to create a flagship people-to-people exchange project with China-ASEAN Young Leaders Scholarship, unfolding a “Bridge to the Future” program for 1000 Chinese and ASEAN young leaders for research and advanced studies, and planning to invite 1000 young elite from the ASEAN countries to be trained in China in the coming five years. In the future, it is necessary for East Asian countries to extend more diversified exchange platforms and expand the scope of the tourist market. It is necessary to push forward talks to facilitate the flow of people and provide institutional guarantee for the free flow of people. At the same time, it is necessary to actively give play to the role of people’s organizations and groupings and promote sustainable benign development of East Asian regional relations through better grounded peopleto-people exchange.