2017年我国石油市场形势政策 分析与 2018 年展望

Energy of China - - 石 油 | Oil -

田 磊

(1. 国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,北京

100038;2. 中国石油集团经济技术研究院,北京

100724)

摘要:2017 年,我国经济形势向好拉动成品油消费增长,汽油、柴油、煤油消费均呈增长态势,但受替代能源发展、出行方式变化因素影响汽油消费增速有所下滑;国内原油产量继续下滑,原油进口大幅增长,致使我国原油对外依存度再创新高;国内炼化产能继续扩大,成品油净出口持续增加。面对国内外石油行业发展的新形势和新挑战,我国着力推进油气行业体制改革,《关于深化石油天然气体制改革的若干意见》指明了油气体制改革总方向、提出了改革总要求,年内多项配套文件和举措出台,进出口、价格、管网、炼化、油气加工、科技创新等各个领域改革有序推进。展望 2018 年,预期油气体制改革相关实施细则和配套政策将陆续出台。应结合当前发展面临的关键问题,在管网改革、炼化去产能等方面重点推进。

关键词:石油;体制改革;管网;去产能

中图分类号:F426 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1003-2355-(2018)01-0010-05 Doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-2355.2018.01.002

Abstract: In 2017I China’s oil market development appeared many new trends which reflected in the consumption of refined oil to maintain growth, however, gasoline consumption growth rate dropped. Domestic crude oil production continued to declineI and it achieved substantial growth in crude oil importsI leading external dependence to a new high. The net export of refined oil had increased rapidly. China’s made efforts to push forward the oil and gas industry system reformI a number of supporting documents and initiatives had been introduced. Looking to 2018I it is expected that the oil and gas reform implementation details and supporting policies will be introducedI especially in the pipe network reform, cutting refining production capacity and so on.

Key words: Oil; Institutional Reform; Pipeline; Cut Overcapacity

1 石油市场发展形势

2017 年,我国石油市场发展出现众多新态势。汽油、柴油、煤油消费均呈现增长态势,但汽油消费增速有所下滑;受国际油价低位震荡影响,国内原油产量继续下滑;在地方炼油企业需求驱动下,原油进口大幅增长,致使原油对外依存度再创新高;国内炼化产能继续扩大,成品油净出口持续增加。

成品油消费保持增长,汽柴煤消费均呈增长

态势。经济形势向好拉动成品油消费增长,2017年前 11 个月,成品油表观消费量 2.82 亿 t,同比增长 6.7%,增速继续回升。其中,汽油消费增长有所放缓,主要是受替代能源发展、出行方式变化以及混合芳烃等燃料增长影响;在工业需求拉动下,柴油消费实现正增长;受益于航空市场增长,煤油消费继续保持较高速度增长。其他产品中,液化气消费非常可观,前 10 个月累计消费超过 4400 万 t,增速超过 10%。

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