2017年我国天然气发展形势与 政策分析及 2018 年展望

Energy of China - - 能源形势分析报告 | Energy Situation Analysis Report -

杨 光,刘小丽

(国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,北京

100038)

摘要:2017 年,我国天然气消费超预期增长,产量明显回升,进口高速增长,冬季天然气供应短缺问题凸显。油气体制改革总体方案出台,天然气价格改革加快推进,管输价格监管制度框架构建完成,天然气交易中心发挥更加重要的作用。展望 2018 年,在经济中高速增长和环保政策的双重刺激下,天然气需求有望继续保持较快增长。建议加快积极应对天然气供应保障问题,加快矿权和基础设施等领域改革步伐。

关键词:天然气;2017 年;体制改革

中图分类号:F426 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1003-2355-(2018)01-0015-04

Doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-2355.2018.01.003

Abstract: In 2017I natural gas consumption grew more than expectedI production obviously reboundedI import volume increased rapidlyI and the shortage of natural gas supply in winter was highlighted. The overall plan for the oil and gas system reform has been introducedI the natural gas price reform has been acceleratedI the gas price regulatory framework has been completedI and the natural gas trading center has played a more important role. Looking forward to 2018I with the dual stimulus of high economy growth rate and environmental policiesI natural gas demand is expected to grow rapidly. It is suggested that the gas supply security should be actively dealt withI and the mining rights and infrastructure reform should be accelerated.

Key words: Natural Gas; 2017; Institutional Reform

1 全年形势分析

1.1 天然气消费超预期增长,冬季用气负荷大幅提升

受宏观经济持续改善和能源结构优化影响,天然气消费大幅增长,工业燃料、发电、化工、采暖等各行业用气需求均明显增长。2017 年 1~11月,天然气消费量达到 2097 亿 m3 ,同比增长18.9% ,增量达 332 亿 m3 ,远超预期水平,是我国天然气消费量增幅最高的一年。

分季节来看,呈现“淡季不淡、旺季更旺”特点。通常 4~10 月是天然气传统消费淡季, 2015年和 2016 年受经济增速趋缓、工业用户用气积极性不高等因素影响,常常出现淡季消费的负增长。但 2017 年 4~10 月,各月天然气消费同比增长均

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