行业异质性视角下中国碳排放 影响因素研究

Energy of China - - 专家论坛 -

赵玉焕,孔翠婷,李 浩

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(北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京

7大行业划分为资本密集型和劳动密集型两种类型;应用 LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)方法的两种分解形式,将 1995—2014 年中国两种类型的产业和 7 个细分行业 CO2 排放变化量分解成 5 种效应: CO2排放因子变动效应、能源结构效应、能源强度效应、活动效应和规模效应。研究结果表明:活动效应是资本密集型与劳动密集型行业 CO2 排放增长的正向驱动因素;能源强度效应是 CO2排放增长的主要负向驱动因素;能源结构效应对劳动密集行业 CO2排放的抑制作用大于资本密集型行业,但总体作用有限;规模效应的作用方向具有不确定性。细分行业分解结果表明:活动效应促进了除电力行业外的 CO2排放,规模效应和能源结构效应分别对建筑业和电力行业的 CO2排放促进作用最大。在研究结论的基础上,本文为中国行业碳减排提出相应政策建议。

关键词:CO2排放;影响因素;资本密集型行业;劳动密集型行业;LMDI中图分类号:c426 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1003-2355-(2018F03-0022-10

Doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-2355.2018.03.004

摘要:本文基于资本密集度差异,中国行业碳排放影响因素进行了研究。将国民经济

Abstract: Based on the difference of capital-intensity among industriesI applying the LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia IndexF decomposition methodI this paper divides seven national industries into two typesW capital-intensive industries and labor-intensive industries; and decomposes the driving factors of carbon emissions into five types: CO2 emission factor effectI energy structure effectI energy intensity effectI activity effect and scale effectX and analyzes the contribution of the above five types of effects to the carbon emissions in China’s seven sub sectors between 1995~2014. The results show thatW the activity effect is a positive driving factor of carbon emissions both in capital-intensive industries and labor-intensive industriesX the energy intensity effect is a main negative driving factor. The energy structure effect is a negative driving factor to carbon emissionsI and plays a more important role in labor intensive industries on carbon emissions than the capital intensive industriesI but the overall effect is limitedX the direction of scale effect is uncertainX the carbon emission decomposition results of each industry show that except the electric power industryI activity effect is the main positive driving factor of carbon emissions. The scale effect and the energy structure effect play the most important role in carbon emissions in the construction industry and the power industryI respectively. cinallyI based on the results of this studyI the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for China’s carbon emission reduction.

Key words: Carbon bmissionsX Driving cactorsX Capital-intensive IndustriesX Labor-intensive IndustriesX LMDI

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