我国天然气供需现状、存在 问题及政策建议

Energy of China - - 研究与探讨 -

孙德强 远 棋

(1. 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京 100190;2. 中国石油股份有限公司吉林油田扶余采油厂,松原 138001;3. 中国科学院大学,北京 100190;4. 中国石油化工股份

有限公司胜利油田钻采院,东营 257100)

摘要:在世界经济持续低迷和缓慢复苏背景下,中国天然气供需基本平衡,供应渠道更加

多元化,保障能力稳步提高,储运设施逐渐完善,消费增速快速回升。天然气市场化改革政策和试点措施正在深入开展。但受国外气源国供气量突然减少、我国冬夏季天然气峰谷差距拉大以及“煤改气”等因素影响,2017 年冬季出现一段时间“气荒”,这种气荒前些年也曾出现过,这是我国天然气供需矛盾的又一次集中体现。本文将从我国天然气供需发展现状、存在问题及政策建议三个方面开展分析与研究,希望对我国天然气行业健康可持续发展提供依据。

关键词:天然气供需;能源结构;存在问题;政策建议

中图分类号:c426 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1003-2355-(2018F03-0041-03 Doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-2355.2018.03.007

Abstract: rnder the background of the world economic downturn and slow recoveryI China’s natural gas supply and demand are basically balanced, supply channels are more diversified, the guarantee capacity is steadily improved, the storage and transportation facilities are gradually perfectedI and the consumption growth rate is rising rapidly. Natural gas market-oriented reform policies and pilot measures are in-depth. However, due to the abrupt reduction of gas supply in foreign countriesI coupled with the widening of the gap between natural gas peaks and valleys in the winter and summer and the impact of the coal-to-gas reformI there was a period of “shortage of gas” in the winter of 2017. This gas shortage also appeared in previous yearsI which is another concentrated manifestation of the contradiction between supply and demand of natural gas in our country. The thesis starts from the development of natural gas supply and demand in our countryI the existing problems and the policy recommendationsI hoping to provide the basis for the healthy and sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry.

Key words: Natural Gas Supply and DemandX bnergy StructureX bxisting ProblemsX Policy Suggestion

在低碳经济发展的今天,天然气在我国能源结构中的占比还远低于世界的平均水平,尽管我国的天然气在基础设施、价格体制、监管体制等

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方面需要进一步完善 ,但天然气在我国能源结构的占比在逐年提高,在我国能源结构优化中,其战略地位变得越来越重要。

1 当前国内天然气发展状况

1.1 天然气产量及供应能力近些年中国天然气供应能力持续增强。2017年,国内天然气产量 1380 亿 m3 ,同比增长 0.8% ,见图 1。

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