Economy moves to second half with Golden Week boom

Positive data shows ‘history’ of virus disruption

Nearly half of China was on the move during the recent eight-day “Golden Week.”

Across the country, from the Yellow Crane Tower in Wuhan, capital of Central China’s Hubei Province – the city put into lockdown for 76 days for epidemic prevention – to the Great Wall in Beijing, crowds were seen spanning miles across tourists sites.

On Friday, the first trading day after the holidays, Chinese A-shares posted an across-the-broad rally, shaking off the turbulent coronavirus blues. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was up 1.68 percent on Friday’s closing, while the NASDAQ-style ChiNext gained 3.81 percent.

Those scenes would have been unimaginable several months ago, and they are the envy of most countries, which are still battling the second wave of the pandemic.

Industry observers and businesspeople said the eight-day holiday – which is regarded as a “bellwether” of China’s economic development – marks a “watershed moment,” as China’s post-virus economic recovery moves into its second half.

The nation has been abuzz with consumption during the holidays, rebounding at a stunning speed. Data released by China’s Ministry of Commerce show that major retailers and catering companies generated total sales of 1.6 trillion yuan from

October 1 to 8, with daily revenue up 4.9 percent from the same time last year.

China also recorded 637 million domestic tourists during the holiday season, reaching 79 percent of last year’s level. It was an improvement over the 48.81 million visitors during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival in June, which represented only 50.9 percent of last year’s level.

“The revival is picking up, which bodes well for a steady recovery in the fourth quarter, as well as next year. It sends a signal that China’s economy has withstood the COVID-19 ‘extreme stress test’ after nine months of painstaking efforts, and has returned to near normalcy,” said Tian Yun, vice director of the Beijing Economic Operation Association.

Huang Qian, owner of a 10-square-meter shop that sells tea and loquat leaf extracts in Suzhou, East China’s Jiangsu Province, said he was “thrilled to tears” when he saw massive traffic jams, and the return of throngs of tourists.

“We sell local specialties that target tourists. My store was on the brink of collapse two months ago with people trapped in their homes. But the National Day holidays became a turning point for my business,” Huang told the Global Times, noting that the Chinese government’s swift anti-epidemic measures played an extremely pivotal role in the country’s economic reboot.

The loquat leaf extracts at Huang’s shop – priced at 50 yuan a bottle – were sold out as of Thursday, Huang said. Some visitors from nearby provinces were also buying tea “in bags,” bringing in large amounts of revenue to help Huang blunt the epidemic fallout.

The hustle and bustle was not only in tourist spots, but also in shopping malls and supermarkets, from first-tier cities like Shanghai to less developed counties. Most gathering activities – like cinema-going – have returned to people’s normal lives.

“The positive data in consumption and fixed-asset investment shows that the COVID-19 pandemic’s disruption to the country’s economic activities is history. Growing economic vitality is seen,” said Mei Xinyu, a research fellow at MOFCOM’s Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.

Analysts predicted that China’s retail may return to positive territory in the fourth quarter, making the country the first, and probably only major economy in the world to record consumption gains in the fourth quarter. They also said one of the uncertainties for the remainder of the year is foreign trade, which is subject to how the COVID-19 is controlled on the global stage, as well as the US presidential election in November, which casts a dark shadow on the global economic outlook.