US, Taiwan seek benefits from each other with futile dialogue
Meet ‘pushes the envelope,’ not crossing red line
The US and the island of Taiwan – two outcasts of the world’s two major regional trade agreements, the RCEP and CPTPP – are set to hold a high-sounding “economic prosperity partnership dialogue” on Friday, which analysts described as a “political show” that is unlikely to achieve any substantial progress at a time when the new US administration is preparing to take over the White House in less than 70 days.
According to Taiwan media, Keith Krach, the US State Department’s under secretary of state for economic growth, energy and environment, was scheduled to join the dialogue in Washington along with Chen Chern-chyi, deputy head in charge of economic affairs on the island of Taiwan. Wang Mei-hua, the head of Taiwan’s economic affairs authority, was scheduled to hold a virtual conference from Taipei with Krach.
Observers said that the talk would be used as a “political show” for the Taiwan authorities to fool its people following their snubbing from the RCEP and the CPTPP. It is a move by the US administration to make the Chinese mainland uncomfortable. In the end, it is Taiwan’s authority to swallow the bitter fruit of guiding the US to go against the mainland.
Political farce
Analysts on the island of Taiwan believe that with multiple issues to be discussed over three hours, the dialogue is unlikely to reach any concrete results.
Representatives from Taiwan attending the talks in the US are only deputy heads of the island’s economic and business departments. Indeed, the person responsible for economic negotiations should be the trade representative, rather than the US State Department, said Zhang Hua, an associate research fellow of the Institute of Taiwan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Douglas Paal, Distinguished Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace of the US, said that “It [the dialogue] is a way of doing something to advance Taiwan’s status. They [the Trump administration] are trying to push the envelope a little bit, not really cross any red lines,” he said.
Yuan Zheng, a senior fellow of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that despite US relations with Taiwan becoming more and more “official” under Trump’s presidency, the mainland is the actual side that takes the initiative, with calm and confidence.
Chang Ya-chung, a Taipei-based political scientist and member of the Kuomintang, said that the dialogue is a political show that allows the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities to fool the island’s people by suggesting that they have made some progress with the US after Trump failed in his presidential reelection attempt and Taiwan failed to join the RCEP.
“Even if an agreement is signed, the US’ commitment is still questionable under the Biden administration, as the US may focus on domestic issues, prioritizing the COVID-19 pandemic and local economy. So there is no reason to highlight the importance of Taiwan,” said Chang.
And the US is bound to demand a very high price if Taiwan decides to make a deal, said Chang, noting that the US does not budge on negotiations even with Canada and Europe, let alone Taiwan, who is in an extremely unequal place in terms of its size and status.
Some Taiwan observers view the dialogue as compensation for Taiwan’s DPP allowing US ractopamine-enhanced pork imports to Taiwan, which has helped US pig farmers ease their sales problems and become more willing to support Trump before the election.
Observers believe that the economic talk is a signal that Taiwan has entered a “dead end” under the DPP’s leadership as they failed to join major multilateral trade frameworks in the Asia-Pacific region.
Wang Jianmin, a Taiwan affairs expert, said that the dialogue will not help Taiwan’s negotiation with the US on the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, noting that Taiwan’s absence from both the RCEP and CPTPP will bring about monumental challenges for the island’s economic growth.