Trade tops $ 6T, defies doomsayers

Digital economy expected to have a bigger role in growth

China’s trade topped $6 trillion for the first time in 2021, customs data showed on Friday, as the economy, a global forerunner in containing the COVID-19, continued a solid recovery over the past year.

The data would be sufficient to crush scaremongers, economists said, defusing concerns over an estimated slower trade growth in 2022 amid a global downturn.

The country’s foreign trade in US dollar terms stood at $6.05 trillion in 2021, with the reading exceeding the $5 trillion mark before topping $6 trillion in the same year, eight years after the country achieved $4 trillion in foreign trade.

It grew in 2021 by $1.4 trillion, equivalent to the annual foreign trade in 2005, according to customs data.

In yuan terms, China’s commodity trade grew by 21.4 percent year-on-year to 39.1 trillion yuan in 2021, with exports up 21.2 percent to 21.73 trillion yuan and imports up 21.5 percent to 17.37 trillion yuan.

The gains came across as even more evident denominated in US dollars, with exports soaring 29.9 percent for the whole of 2021 while import growth standing at 30.1 percent.

China’s trade retained robust resilience in the face of severe fallout from the global coronavirus pandemic, delivering “dazzling” results, Li Kuiwen, said spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs (GAC).

The brisk trade growth will be likely trend lower this year alongside an overall downturn, while a resilient economy is still here to stay, observers said.

China’s trade landscape faces rising uncertainty, instability and imbalance amid recurrent waves of the pandemic, meaning the country’s relevant advantage in taking the lead in economic rebound might be weakening, GAC’s Li said.

He stressed, however, that the country’s resilience and strong economic fundamentals over the long run won’t change, thereby vigorously underpinning a push to stabilize trade.

If the virus situation was to wane in the US and Europe later this year, global supply chains that have been battered by the pandemic would be on path for a revival. As a consequence, China, having played a central part in filling global supply chain gaps, tends to get fewer orders, Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University, said on Friday.

A slowdown in trade growth is in line with a moderation in economic growth. China’s economic expansion is expected to range from 5.5 percent to 6.5 percent in 2022, compared to an estimated 8 percent for 2021, according to Cao.

China’s exports growth would slow to 10 percent, but still make a positive contribution to GDP growth in 2022, said Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS.

More fiscal support and a small rise in macro leverage are estimated in the pipeline, boosting infrastructure investment growth, Wang said.

Cao said the country’s digital economy is on pace for a bigger role in propping up the economy, offsetting the headwinds confronting the traditional part of the economy.

The e-commerce trade gained 15 percent to 1.98 trillion yuan, with exports up 24.5 percent to 1.44 trillion yuan.