‘Don’t say we didn’t warn you’: China’s top think tank
▶ Classic, pre-war warning sent to provocative Pelosi
“Don’t say we didn’t warn you!” – a phrase that was used by the People’s Daily in 1962 before China was forced to fight the border war with India and ahead of the 1979 China-Vietnam War, was frequently mentioned during a forum held Friday by a high-level Chinese think tank, as analysts warned that open military options and comprehensive countermeasures ranging from the economy to diplomacy from China await if US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi gambles with a visit to the Taiwan island during her Asia tour.
Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone conversation with US President Joe Biden on Thursday night, during which Xi once again warned the US about the seriousness and significance of the Taiwan question and said, “Public opinion cannot be defied. Those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this.”
In the past week, in response to Pelosi’s potential visit to the island of Taiwan, a string of warnings have also been made by different ministries and departments of China. On Friday, the Institute of Taiwan Studies in Chinese Academy of Social Sciences – the highest-level think tank – held a forum with analysts and discussed the damage of Pelosi’s possible Taiwan island visit to the China-US relations, cross-Straits stability and regional and global peace, and China’s countermeasures.
Sending fighter jets to intercept Pelosi’s plane, declaring air and maritime
zones around the island of Taiwan as restriction zones for military exercises … China’s responses will be systematical and not limited to small scale given the severity of Pelosi’s move and the damage to the political trust of ChinaUS relations, Yang Mingjie, head of the Institute of Taiwan Studies in Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times.
Pelosi is leading an official congressional delegation to Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore starting Friday and it is unclear whether the trip will include a stop in the island of Taiwan.
The US military had reportedly expressed safety concerns to Pelosi but later played down worries that China may shoot down Pelosi’s plane in case she visits the island of Taiwan, and said the US military will increase movement of forces and assets in the Indo-Pacific region.
Yang noted that China has reiterated its opposition to Pelosi’s possible visit and used the phrase “yanzhen yidai” – literally meaning “streamlining army formation to wait for the enemy” – to show that we have made all preparations for combats or any challenges.
There are multiple measures the PLA can take once Pelosi flies to the island of Taiwan. Chinese fighter jets can fly along with and monitor the plane that Pelosi takes and fly over the airport where her plane lands, Wang Yunfei, a naval expert, told the Global Times.
Chinese fighter jets can also fly across the island to start a new model to fight against the military actions of secessionists on the island, Wang said, noting that sending missiles surrounding the island of Taiwan and conducting military drills are also options.
Many analysts noted at the forum that the military response from the Chinese mainland will be larger in scale and upgraded from the ones during the 1995-96 crisis of the Taiwan Straits.
In responding to key initiator of “Taiwan separatism” Lee Teng-hui’s visit to the US, the PLA took a series of military drills from July 1995 to March 1996 in the waters surrounding the island of Taiwan.
The backdrop of Pelosi’s visit is different from that of the 1995-96 crisis – China-US relations have changed, the comparison of strength between China and the US has changed, and the island of Taiwan itself has changed – and the way the mainland will cope with Pelosi’s visit will be different and may bring wider consequences and impact, said Wu Yongping, director of the Institute of Taiwan Studies, Tsinghua University.
Wu noted that the Chinese mainland’s countermeasures will be comprehensive in military, diplomacy, economy and public opinions. If Pelosi insists in making the visit, China can turn the incident into an opportunity to taking control of the Taiwan Straits situation and push the reunification process a step further, and such consequence should be borne by the island and the US as the international community will also clearly see the provocation from the US and that any actions China will take are out of determination to defend its sovereignty.
“If so, will Pelosi regret catalyzing China’s reunification?” Wu asked.
The phrase “Don’t say we didn’t warn you” had also been frequently mentioned by analysts when talking about the disastrous consequences that may be brought about by Pelosi during the Friday forum.
“Don’t say we didn’t warn you” has become a key phrase used by Chinese official media as the severest warning previously issued before shots were fired in military operations. The phrase has been used several times before, such as in 1962 and 1978, not long before China’s military operations against provocations by Indian and Vietnamese troops, respectively.
“The US should not underestimate the Chinese people’s determination to defend core interests on sovereignty, integrity and security at any time. It should also not repeat the miscalculation it made in the 1950s in the Korean War. Despite not being strong at that time, China still had the courage to fight a war when it was pushed to the corner, it will surely not sit idly by this time,” said Yang.
If she makes the visit, the possibility for China to recall the ambassador from the US cannot be ruled out, analysts said.
Pelosi, out of her paranoid anti-China ideas and selfish political interests, has provoked the Taiwan question and sent a seriously wrong signal to the secessionist forces in Taiwan. If it leads to the intensification and loss of control of secessionist activities, it is detrimental to US national interests and it is the US that has to foot the bill, Zhu Weidong, deputy director from the Institute of Taiwan Studies in Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Friday.