Can Trump’s friendly Russian stance overcome US establishment resistance?
Donald Trump’s election as the 45th US president came unexpected to most, including probably the Kremlin. Moscow had been visibly getting ready for continued confrontation with Washington under a Hillary Clinton administration. By the fall of 2016, the two countries had come on a trajectory which was leading toward a possible kinetic collision between their military forces operating in Syria. Thus, although Trump’s election was a surprise to the Russians, this was a welcome surprise.
During the election campaign, the Clinton camp accused the New York billionaire of being almost a Putin agent, ready to do Moscow’s bidding. This was a patent lie, of course. Yet, Trump’s rise to the White House offers more of an opportunity than risk to Russia. On the campaign trail, Trump spoke of the need to get along with Russia, the importance of US- Russian cooperation to defeat terrorists in Syria, and the people of Crimea being happier as part of Russia than under Kiev’s rule. In the short term, Trump’s election gives both the US and Russia a chance to avoid war between the two of them.
Beyond that, there is a hope that USRussian relations can be made more constructive and productive. The first contact between Vladimir Putin and Trump, by phone, was encouraging for both parties. The leaders reportedly discussed the need to step back from the brink, to join forces against a common enemy – terrorism – and to improve economic cooperation, even if they did not mention the future of the sanctions regime.
An even larger question is whether Trump will be the prime source of foreign policy initiatives or whether he will choose to delegate. In either case, it is not clear who will do the foreign policy thinking and strategizing for the new administration.
Even in the best of circumstances, there are limitations to how fast and how much US- Russian relations will improve. Russia will by no means return to the policy of integration into the enlarged West that it basically followed between 1989 and 2014. Rather than stepping back, Russia will continue to insist on its sovereignty and its own definition of national security, and a co- equal status with the US. It will not even discuss the status of Crimea.
All these things are anathema to the bulk of the US foreign policy community. The anti- Russian atmosphere in Washington is barely dispelled as a result of Trump’s triumph. The bulk of the US political class, including the now ruling Republican Party, sees Russia, its leader and his policies in starkly negative light. The media have been busy demonizing Putin for years, and they will not stop now. A number of US allies, particularly the Poles and the Balts, are vehemently Russophobic, as are members of the Ukrainian diaspora in North America. Their demand is for a harsher, not a milder, line toward Russia.
For Trump himself, Russia is hardly a key issue, even in foreign policy. Now that he has been elected presi- dent, will he continue fighting the US establishment, or will he seek peace with it? In the latter case, would he consider trade- offs, in which his Russia policy becomes a bargaining chip? Or is he going to swim against the tide, including on his Russia policy, defending the notion that one needs to manage relations with Russia pragmatically, rather than to try to manage Russia itself, and punish it to change its behavior? So far, this latter course has failed.
Even if Trump follows through with his willingness to engage Putin, the issues the two sides will have to deal with demand stark choices. In order to jointly fight terrorists, the US and Russia would have to agree who is a terrorist in Syria, and who is not. Separating moderate rebels from the radicals and extremists has proven impossible for the US so far. In order to have the Minsk agreement on Donbass implemented, Washington would have to lean hard on Kiev, something the Obama administration has been unwilling to do. Changing the official US stance on either issue will be very hard, particularly when it is not clear what Washington will gain in return. While he is signaling he might reach out to Russia, Trump is vowing to put pressure on China. Conceivably, this might lead to an attempt to play Moscow off Beijing. What is difficult to imagine, however, is a Russia that joins in a US policy to contain China. Over the past quarter century, Russia and China have built a strong and solid relationship which is driven primarily by its own dynamic. In the next few years, Trump, Xi and Putin will be the foremost leaders who will shape majorpower relations in the world. We Fear Russia?