Abe’s dance with once- spurned Trump
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had a 90- minute conversation with US President- elect Donald Trump at the Trump Tower in New York City Thursday afternoon. After the meeting, Abe told reporters, “The talks made me feel sure that we can build a relationship of trust.” As for highlyanticipated topics such as the TransPacific Partnership ( TPP) and the US- Japan alliance, Abe declined to disclose to reporters the details of his talks with Trump.
Flying to the US and having a meeting with the sworn- in president is a diplomatic tradition for Japanese prime ministers. However, the special visit to Washington to talk to a president- elect before taking office is a first.
The primary cause for Abe’s eagerness to meet Trump is that he hoped to repair ties and establish a favorable personal relationship. During the US presidential elections, Abe’s administration was betting on former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, and kept in close contact with her. Trump’s win caught Abe off guard. On that score, Abe has to not only express his sincerity and apologies to Trump, but also show flexibility and pragmatism in his foreign policy approach to the still- forming Trump administration.
Apart from that, Abe also tried to sound out Trump’s real intention about the TPP and the US- Japan alliance. Trump objected to the TPP many times throughout his campaign. On October 22, when he made a speech about his plan for his first 100 days in office in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, Trump articulated once again that he would announce a withdrawal from the TPP once he takes office. From the perspective of the current situation, there is not much chance for the deal to take effect.
But remarks made during the presidential election do not necessarily reflect the candidates’ real thoughts. Therefore, Abe will to some extent get to know Trump’s actual idea about the TPP and then make adjustments in his own policies. Japan’s House of Representatives recently passed a proposal to ratify the trade deal, yet it has not been approved by the nation’s House of Councilors. This has provided Abe some space to maneuver.
Unlike previous US presidential elections, this one has distressed the Japanese public. During the campaign, Trump suggested that he would allow Japan to have nuclear weapons and urged Tokyo to pay more to maintain the US military presence, otherwise, he might withdraw US armed forces from the country. Given that Japan is the only nation in the world which suffered from nuclear strikes, it has been sticking to its Three Non- Nuclear Principles proposed by then prime minister Eisaku Sato since 1967 – non- possession, non- production and non- introduction of nuclear weapons. Abe won’t risk his political life to break these principles, hence Trump’s words will not influ- ence Japan’s public sentiment about the issue. However, the future direction of the US- Japan alliance is worrying Abe and Japanese society. On the one hand, Tokyo’s diplomacy ever since the end of WWII is based on its alliance with Washington, while on the other, Japanese people have long believed that Japan’s security is safeguarded by the US troops stationed on its soil. Trump’s remarks made Tokyo feel like its husband, who has been loving and caring toward Japan for decades, might file a divorce petition someday all of the sudden with no apparent reason. Of course, exploring what Trump’s future economic policy might be cannot be excluded from Abe’s goal of his trip to Washington. Trump’s slogan was “America First” during the election campaigns. Trump wanted to introduce more capital flow to the US and rejuvenate the manufacturing industry in the country. Abe may have proposed helping Trump “Make America Great Again” by seeking opportunities for bilateral economic cooperation during their meeting. This will not only help shaping a closer relationship with Trump and improve Japan’s status in the eyes of Trump, but also help maintain a solid alliance between the two countries.