Only negotiations, not violence, can improve peace prospects in Myanmar
Large- scale conflicts broke out again in northern Myanmar on Sunday last week. Four ethnic armed groups – the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, the Arakan Army and the Kachin Independence Army -– attacked government forces on the country’s northern border with China. China’s sovereignty, security and strategic interests are being seriously challenged.
The clashes in Myanmar have directly challenged China’s sovereignty and posed prominent threats to the security of the border areas. The battlefields in northern Myanmar are adjacent to China’s Yunnan Province, and stray bullets from Myanmar injured a Chinese civilian this time as they often have before. According to media reports, the bullets from the latest fighting injured one woman and pierced a solar water heater in Wanting, a Chinese town bordering northern Myanmar.
Moreover, the conflicts, which may escalate, will very likely bring an influx of Myanmar people to China. There have already been flocks of Myanmese flooding to the border areas between Myanmar and China, and on Sunday morning nearly 100 Myanmese flowed into Wanting town. China’s local government has helped settle them out of humanitarian considerations. But as the number of people crossing the Chinese border keeps climbing, China needs to do more to prevent the influx of Myanmese from jeopardizing the security and social stability of the Chinese border areas.
The conflicts in northern Myanmar will deeply affect China’s strategic interests in the region. The sizable economic ties between the two countries include massive border trade and huge investment. The fighting has cast a shadow on the security of pipelines and other large- scale investment projects in Myanmar. With its significant geopolitical location, Myanmar has a prominent status in China’s One Belt and One Road initiative and the Bangladesh- China- India- Myanmar Economic Corridor. But these initiatives will have a shadow cast upon them by the fighting in Myanmar.
The hostilities in northern Myanmar will directly influence China’s interests. For China, Myanmar’s national reconciliation and peace process have much bearing on regional security, the BeijingNay Pyi Taw relationship and China’s strategic interests in the region. Thus China expects to see a peaceful, stable and unified Myanmar.
China has a consistent stance on Myanmar’s ethnic fighting. China “calls on the conflicting parties to exercise restraint, immediately stop relevant military operations, prevent the situation from get- ting worse, take concrete and effective measures to restore peace to the border area and refrain from anything detrimental to China’s sovereignty and the life and property of the border residents.”
In addition, China has been actively creating favorable conditions for peace talks and political negotiations among parties concerned. It also has worked to promote and participated in political talks between governmental forces and ethnic armed groups as a third party, and sent special envoys to meet with ethnic groups on several occasions. China’s proposals and actions have won praise from Myanmar, and been highly recognized by Aung San Suu Kyi.
The latest fighting in northern Myanmar demonstrates that the long- standing conflicts among the concerned parties have not been properly addressed yet. Since Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy ( NLD) came into office, notable progress has been made in promoting national conciliation and domestic peace through the 21st Century Panglong Conference, but the ongoing conflicts will pose a huge challenge to the Panglong peace dream.
In spite of this, past civil wars in Myanmar have made it clear that violence cannot effectively address the ingrained ethnic conflicts, nor can produce substantial development for the country’s peace process. As a third party, China’s mediation is able to create favorable conditions for dialogue among parties concerned, but ultimately the only solution should still lie in peace talks and political consultations. This requires the NLD government, the military and ethnic armed groups to use more political wisdom and patience and find a solution satisfactory to all parties concerned.