Intel pact can’t lift Park from political scandal

South Korea’s Defense Minister Han Min- koo and Japan’s Ambassador to South Korea Yasumasa Nagamine on Wednesday officially signed the General Security of Military Information Agreement ( GSOMIA) in Seoul.

The pact allows the two countries to share sensitive military intelligence directly with each other regarding North Korea, including the latter’s nuclear and missile programs, without treating the US as an intermediary. Before that, Washington, Tokyo and Seoul had reached an agreement to strengthen intelligence sharing among the three sides. Under that framework, South Korea and Japan had to exchange their intelligence about North Korea through the US. As recently as June 2012, Japan and South Korea were planning to sign the GSOMIA, yet canceled it at the last moment due to the domestic opposition from South Korea.

Both the Japanese and South Korean governments have claimed that the deal was signed to counter missile and nuclear threats from North Korea. But analysts believe its political significance outweighs its military role.

US President- elect Donald Trump has called for Tokyo and Seoul to bear more responsibilities in terms of their own defense. If Washington pulls itself away from Northeast Asia, Japan and South Korea will be put under more pressure. Thus, they hope to pass the deal to enhance their political and military cooperation, in order to offset the possible isolationist influence that will be brought by a Trump presidency.

The intelligence- sharing pact shows that Japan and South Korea are huddling together in hard times. Cozying up to Seoul to jointly contain China has long been Tokyo’s strategy. Meanwhile, after the disputes over deploying the Terminal High- Altitude Area Defense ( THAAD) system in South Korea broke out, Beijing- Seoul ties swiftly deteriorated. The Blue House therefore had to use Japan as leverage while facing pressure from China.

As is known to all, the US was the main initiator in the process of forging the trilateral military alliance with Tokyo and Seoul. Japan has been firmly following the US while South Korea was hesitant. Given the rise of Japan’s rightwing forces and Seoul’s close economic relations with China, South Korea had to think twice before acting on the issue.

The signing of GSOMIA between Japan and South Korea was first raised in 1989, yet was postponed until now because of South Korea’s domestic opposition. However, South Korean President Park Geun- hye’s administration suddenly announced a restart of negotiations on October 27 and has quickly gone through all the legal procedures. Why has she turned so impatient now? Her recent political scandal may be the answer.

It was alleged in October that Park let her close friend Choi Soon- sil exert inappropriate influence in state affairs and her government’s approval rating started to fall sharply. South Korea’s opposition parties are appealing for an impeachment.

Against the backdrop, if she can make a breakthrough in diplomatic and security fields and trigger China’s countermeasures, she might be able to distract her country’s public. In addition, the move can also win her support from conservative forces as well as interest groups in military industry.

However, by signing the pact, Park can only get temporary relief. Her support rate has already remained at an all- time low for some time. It is increasingly unlikely that she would be able to remain in office to the end of her term.

The GSOMIA might result in an outbreak of public’s anger against Park’s administration. Some opposition parties are claiming that Park is selling out her country by approving the deal. If she falls from power because of the incident, the next president will likely come from one of opposition parties. At that time, the intelligence sharing agreement will possibly be abolished.