US’ strategy shifts in tackling NK nuke issue
US President Donald Trump’s North Korea policy has arrived unexpectedly and with aggression. During his tour to three Asian countries in mid March, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the strategic patience of the Obama administration has ended and the US will put all possible options on the table including preemptive military action. A few days ago, on Twitter, Trump accused North Korea of looking for trouble. The US military also seems to be heading toward a point of no return.
However, Vice President Mike Pence and National Security Adviser H. R. McMaster later stressed peaceful solutions to the North Korean nuclear issue. What exactly is Trump’s North Korea policy?
For Washington, Obama’s strategic patience has been a futile policy. In 2016, North Korea conducted two nuclear tests, and the UN Security Council imposed the most severe sanctions ever to a single country. But this failed to soften Pyongyang’s position on the nuclear issue and didn’t succeed in forcing it to abandon its nuclear ambitions in a short time.
Moreover, the policy has proven to be dangerous in the eight years since its adoption, during which North Korea conducted four nuclear tests and launched over 65 missiles. The country’s nuclear missile technologies have seen tangible progress.
The Trump administration’s abandonment of the strategic patience policy does not imply that it will start military strikes soon. The US lacks the resolve to launch a war against North Korea, not because Washington and its allies do not have the capability, but because there are no cost- effective and opera- tional plans. This is due to the internal and external geopolitical structure of the Korean Peninsula.
Nonetheless, the abandonment of the policy highlights Washington’s strategy shift – it will prioritize solving North Korea’s nuclear issue in its foreign policy. Trump will also adjust his diplomatic approaches.
The Trump government will continue to mobilize US Asia- Pacific allies to prepare for any changes in North Korea. It will push forward cooperation with countries such as China and restart the coordination process with big powers on the nuclear issue.
It will interfere aggressively under the framework of the UN and de- legitimize Pyongyang’s regime. By lobbying ASEAN, European, Middle Eastern and African countries, the US will set restrictions on diplomatic, business and people- to- people exchanges between North Korea and these nations.
The US will also spare no efforts in trying to persuade the international community to impose “sub- sanctions” on North Korea and limit the country’s interactions with the outside world, so as to stifle Pyongyang’s source of finance.
At the same time, Washington will accelerate its preparations for military strikes against North Korea. The signing of a military intelligence- sharing pact between Japan and South Korea and the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense ( THAAD) anti- missile system on South Korean soil indicate that preparations for a war against North Korea are on the way.
Trump’s tactic aims at pushing North Korea to give up its illusions about nuclear power by imposing allround pressures. If North Korea does not compromise, the US will end up suppressing it. However, the US is striving for changes in the face of the North Korean nuclear conundrum.
China advocates for a peaceful solution to the nuclear issue. If Beijing insists on dialogues, the Trump administration may not exclude the possibility of talking with Pyongyang. Dialogues would be what the international community prefers and it is also Pyongyang’s choice.
Even if the US does not take military actions, how long could North Korea live under increasingly severe sanctions? The US and North Korea should realize that dialogues can start the process of Pyongyang giving up its nuclear programs and resuming its obligations in the Six- Party Talks.
By truly abandoning its nuclear development, North Korea will obtain security assurance and respect. The peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue requires not only courage but also smart choices.
The author is dean of the School of International Relations, Nanjing University. opinion@ globaltimes. com. cn