Italy, a new found friend of US, can act as facilitator between Europe, Russia

The prospect of closer relations between the leaders of Italy and the United States is only likely to have an indirect impact on Italy’s struggling economy, analysts told Xinhua, though it could have a ripple effect on migrant policy and relations with Russia.

Italy and the United States are traditional allies. But since becoming prime minister 10 weeks ago, the policies of Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte have aligned with those of US President Donald Trump more than with any other leader from a Western, industrialized country.

In less than two months, the two leaders have met three times: at the G7 summit in Canada, at the meeting of NATO in Brussels, and during Conte’s state visit to Washington. Though the visits have yet to yield concrete results, analysts say they are likely to prove relevant.

A direct impact on bilateral trade is unlikely, according to Alessandro Terzulli, chief economist of SACE, the Italian export credit agency, since trade agreements are negotiated by the EU rather than individual member states. But Terzulli told Xinhua there could be indirect benefits.

“We could see more collaboration between the two countries,” Terzulli said. “Or perhaps the United States will relax tariffs on products that could help Italy more than other countries, like automobiles, or it’s possible Italy could be part of a process to help convince the US to return to the negotiating table on trade.”

In other areas, the impact of the closer relationship will be more direct. Riccardo Puglisi, a political economist with the University of Pavia, said the United States’ strong anti-migrant stance helps lend legitimacy to similar anti-migrant policies in Italy.

“To some extent, both countries help legitimize the other’s policies in this area, though Italy gains much more from that,” Puglisi said in an interview.

Italy and the United States are also the two most important Western countries generally leaning toward friendly relations with Russia. At the G7, Conte was the only leader to express support for Trump’s view that Russia should be allowed in the group that suspended it in 2014 after its military clash with Ukraine.

At the NATO meeting last month, Trump said he was determined to improve relations between his country and Russia. The setting was unusual for such a declaration given that NATO was created 69 years ago to counter the influence of the then-Soviet Union. Conte gave more measured support for the notion.

“We have to wait and see what will happen,” Salvatore Santangelo, a geography of linguistics professor at Rome’s Tor Vergata University, told Xinhua. “There is a big difference between declarations and actions, and we have to see what the countries, including Italy, will actually do.”

Alessandro Marrone, head of research for the Institute for International Affairs, said Italy’s middle-ground stance on Russia is not a big surprise. He noted that Italy has long played the role of a facilitator between Western Europe and Russia.

“I think Italy would like to see more channels of communications with Russia open,” Marrone said in an interview.

“But I do not think any of the leaders will do anything to put the security of NATO at risk. Italy may be eager to strengthen ties with Russia, but not at the expense of NATO or EU ties.”