Constitutional revision debate rages as Abe set to win third term

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has declared candidacy for the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election to be held next month.

Experts in Japan noted that having secured support from five out of the seven intra-party factions, Abe is set to win the party election and become the longest-serving prime minister in postwar Japan.

Meanwhile, as Abe has reiterated his determination to revise the pacifist Constitution, heated debate on the issue is expected to carry on throughout the election campaign and even Abe’s expected third consecutive term, causing political chaos and public divisions, experts said.

The election, to be held on September 20, is likely to be a two-horse race between Abe and former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba who declared his candidacy on August 10.

Currently, five of the seven intra-party factions, encompassing about 70 percent of the party’s lawmakers, have expressed their readiness to support Abe.

A Kyodo News survey released on Sunday showed that 36.3 percent of the respondents backed Abe as leader of the ruling party, while 31.3 percent supported Ishiba. Abe has been unopposed and re-elected for his second consecutive three-year term in 2015 since he retook office in 2012.

Experts noted that compared to Ishiba, Abe, as president of the party, enjoys certain advantages in garnering support from his party members in the election.

Ukeru Magosaki, a former Japanese foreign ministry official, said that under the current election system, if a lawmaker wants to get re-elected in local election, he or she has to get support from the party, otherwise the lawmaker cannot run as the party’s candidate and will be at a disadvantage.

“It’s because of this election system that the lawmakers have to choose to support the party leader. Even those who are secure in their position as a lawmaker, they might want to get important portfolios in the Cabinet and thus also need the support of the prime minister,” he said.

His words were echoed by Tase Yasuhiro, political analyst and Nikkei columnist, who said that the lawmakers support Abe for their own interests instead of respect for the prime minister. After the party election, the prime minister will have a cabinet reshuffle, and some lawmakers aim to get a good position in the new cabinet.

Kazuya Iwamura, commentator from Kyodo News, said that there is no strong candidate inside the party that can replace Abe, and potential candidates from younger generations still lack the drive to win.

Despite a number of nepotism scandals that have been damaging Abe’s support rate since last year, the opposition parties failed to unite to become a real threat to the Abe administration, he said.

Meanwhile, analysts noted that despite Abe’s dominance, turbulence may still build up inside the party surrounding a few major events next year, including local elections and the House of Councilors election, and especially surrounding the constitutional revision.

Yasuhiro said under the current LDP rules, Abe will not be able to run a fourth consecutive term, and thus became a “lame duck” in his next term, with support in his party declining fast. He added that by now the achievements of Abe’s economic policies dubbed as “Abenomics” have been largely a show staged by power, and such a show won’t be able to continue with Abe’s power contained amid political chaos.

Magosaki said the upper house election next year will be vital for the opposition parties, and if the opposition forces could unite, they might be able to overthrow the two-thirds majority of the ruling parties in the house. “But on the other side, whether the opposition forces can really unite and fight, we still need to wait and see,” he said.