Turkey’s economic volatility bites millions of vulnerable Syrian refugees

Turkey’s economic volatility and the currency tumble could affect living standard of millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey, as their vulnerable community would be among the first to suffer from a financial decline.

Over 3.5 million refugees are living in Turkey, more than any other country in the world, after having escaped the conflict that has continued for over seven years in neighboring Syria.

The majority of these refugees live in cities and towns around Turkey, but less than 10 percent of them live in formal camps.

Meanwhile, there are at least half a million refugees from other parts of the Middle East and North Africa who also live in the country.

As of beginning of 2018, Turkey has spent $30 billion for the refugees it hosts, according to a report from the Turkish parliament. The country comes in second after the US on a list of most charitable countries in the world.

But many doubt if this could continue as Turkey’s economy, the biggest of the Middle East, shows signs of worrying vulnerabilities amid an ongoing row with its NATO ally the US over the detention of a US pastor on charges of terrorism in western Turkey.

Both countries have imposed trade sanctions on each other and US President Donald Trump threatened with more severe measures as his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan shows for his part no sign of backing down, branding his country’s currency turmoil as an “economic attack” emanating from the US.

“For the moment, we have not witnessed any budget cuts or project suspensions or delays,” Metin Corabatir, an expert on refugee issues and chief of the Research Center on Asylum and Migration, said.

However, he went on, “if the economic stress continues and transforms into a crisis, we can expect that Syrian refugees will suffer from it because most of them work informally in Turkey and they can easily become jobless if their employers go bankrupt.”

The depreciation of Turkish lira has also impacted many refugees as they have seen their modest income crumble away, reducing dramatically their purchasing power like the same situation for the entire population of Turkey.

As part of a UN program, the Turkish Red Crescent Society delivers 120 liras ($20) monthly per person by debit card to some 1.3 million Syrians.

Many others work in the black market and are vehemently prone to Turkey’s economic trouble.

“Life for the refugees would be even more difficult than it is right now if Turkey sinks deeper in economic trouble,” emphasized Corabatir, who also pointed out that this situation would inexorably affect European countries once thousands of refugees hosted in Turkey leave for the wealthier European continent, causing a new wave of immigration and surely a political crisis in the EU.

Things are getting tighter by the day for Syrians working in big cities as their power of purchase declines because of regular price hikes.

Many of these migrants settled in Turkey because of the deal Ankara struck with the EU in 2016. Under the deal, the EU agreed to give Turkey around $6.6 billion to assist the refugees to permanently resettle there.

The only good news is that euro has become much more valuable because of the depreciation of the Turkish currency, and Turkey relies heavily on the funds for the refugees.