How will US-Iran face-off affect North Korea?

The recent US killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani has nearly steered the US and Iran to the brink of war and has stepped up regional antagonism, creating a sense of unease among Washington’s allies. The move shows Washington would resort to military means if it cannot tackle problems diplomatically.

The move of eliminating a top military commander of Iran by the Trump administration sent a chilling message to North Korea. Washington has been hostile toward Tehran and Pyongyang, which were labeled as “rogue states” in US President Donald Trump’s National Security Strategy in 2017. The latest Washington-Tehran row has led to discussions about how such unbridled actions of the US would affect the current impasse on the Korean Peninsula.

The US killing of Soleimani has not deterred North Korean leader Kim Jongun. He still attended a public event at a fertilizer factory, instead of hiding his tracks.

Many analysts weighing the impact of Soleimani’s killing on Pyongyang believe it would reduce Kim’s willingness to denuclearize. However, it has to be noticed that the toppling of the regimes of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi did not affect Kim’s commitment to denuclearize. The killing of an Iranian general would not affect his willingness to do so either.

Whether North Korea will give up its nuclear ambition rests on whether it can reach a deal with the US. Pyongyang will calculate the losses and gains. At the Fifth Plenary Meeting of the Seventh Central Committee of the Workers’ Party

of Korea, Kim said, “If the US persists on its hostile policy toward North Korea, there will never be denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.”

North Korea is also paying close attention to Iran’s reaction. Iran’s military retaliation can be seen as a response to North Korea’s concerns. Iran retaliated by launching several short-range ballistic missiles at US airbases in Iraq. There is much speculation on the number of casualties among US troops.

In this case, if the US takes similar action against North Korea, Pyongyang would be very likely to carry out limited military strikes on US military bases in South Korea or Japan as retaliation.

As the recent US-Iran clash sees no sign of abating soon, the US has its hands full dealing with it. The US is occupied with the festering Iran crisis. Some worry that North Korea may seize the opportunity to conduct missile tests. However, if Pyongyang does so, it will have to face irreversible consequences that will undermine its efforts to return to the international community and revitalize its economy. Therefore, Pyongyang will not try to provoke the US easily.

Recently, South Korean President Moon Jae-in mentioned in his New Year address that he hoped the reciprocal visit of Kim “can be arranged at an early date.” However, due to the incident between Iran and the US, the North Korean leader’s willingness to visit South Korea may have waned because of concerns about his security.

The author is an associate professor at the School of International Studies, Liaoning University, and a research fellow of the Chahar Institute. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn