Medvedev’s resignation ‘not a political earthquake’
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s government announced its resignation on Wednesday as President Vladimir Putin proposed a nationwide vote on sweeping constitutional changes. Analysts consider it as a planned event rather than a political crisis, and Medvedev and Putin share a high degree of trust.
In his state of the nation address, Putin suggested amending the constitution to allow lawmakers to name the prime minister and cabinet members, according to media reports.
Putin thanked Medvedev’s government for its work, TASS said, noting that “not everything was done, but everything never work out in full.” And the president planned to meet with all ministers of the government soon.
After those amendments are adopted, there will be significant changes not only to
various constitution articles but also to the balance of power, Medvedev was quoted as saying in the media report.
Although it’s an unexpected move, Chinese analysts said it will not have a huge impact on the Russian political system, as Putin may consider appointing a new prime minister who would likely be his successor after 2024.
Putin enjoys high prestige among the Russian people, so the government’s resignation won’t shake Russia’s political stability and Putin’s status, said Wu Enyuan, a research fellow of the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Medvedev’s fourth term in office is due to end in 2024, and there are two major reasons for the abrupt resignation. One is because the Russian economy has been sluggish in recent years and the government should take responsibility, Yang Jin, an associate research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
“Another reason is to plan for 2024. Putin should soon appoint a new prime minister, who will most likely be a successor to the post-Putin era,”
Yang said, noting that Putin needs four years to train his successor.
Chinese analysts also consider it an iconic event, which is not a signal of a political crisis but a planned political arrangement.
Medvedev will take a new role as the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, and he considered it right for the government to resign and to let the president make all necessary decisions, media reported.
“The deputy head of the security council is a very high position,” he said.
There is speculation about Putin’s reshuffle after 2024.
Putin is supposedly making succession arrangements, Zhao Huirong, a research fellow of the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
After the Ukrainian crisis, the West’s sanctions began to hit Russia’s economy, and the latter never fully shook off its heavy dependency on oil and gas, Zhao noted.
“Russia is concerned with many economic and geopolitical problems, so the decision was also made under such circumstances, and it hopes to open a new door to Russia’s dilemma,” she said.
World Bank forecasts that Russia’s economic growth will reach 1.6 percent in 2020 while downside risks were expected to prevail. Russia also remains exposed to the possibility of additional economic sanctions, which may further dampen domestic and foreign private investment, the bank noted.
Analysts also noted that the resignation was communicated ahead between Putin and Medvedev, as they have always maintained a high degree of trust.
“Medvedev’s resignation does not indicate what happened to their relationship,” said Ding Xiaoxing, director of the Eurasia institute of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.
This kind of collective resignation also often occurred before the Putin era. “Now is the start of the next decade, which needs something new to push forward; that’s also why this year’s annual address came so early, to address current problems,” Ding noted.
It cannot be an “earthquake” for Russia’s politics, as the overall situation is still under control, the analyst said.
The move will not influence China-Russia relations, said Zhao, noting that Putin has called the relations to be a true comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination and won’t be shaken by its domestic reshuffle.
It sheds new hope for Russia to unlock internal and external problems it faces, which most importantly gives Russia an opportunity to select officials ahead of 2024, according to Zhao.
Boris Yeltsin promoted several people as prime minister before Putin; having this as a precedent, it is likely the new prime minister will be honed and examined for the next four years.