‘The US has no interest in getting into a conflict over Taiwan’
GT: There have been frequent high-level interactions between the US and the island of Taiwan since President Donald Trump took office. In Tsai’s second term of office, will the US continue its efforts to support Taiwan? Will there be some major changes in US policies for the island?
Paal: It’s always possible that there will be major changes, but my belief is that the US will slowly try to increase the cooperation between the US and Taiwan in both formal and informal ways, because Taiwan is viewed favorably politically in the US because of its political system and successful democracy, and also because it’s seen as a partner in stabilizing Asia-Pacific at a time when China’s rise is destabilizing the region in the views of the US.
GT: You once reminded Taiwan that it should not spring a surprise. Amid tensions between the Chinese mainland and the US, what should Taiwan do to avoid drawing fire?
Paal: Taiwan has always done more poorly economically and otherwise when the US and the Chinese mainland have tensions. The room is smaller. So I think Taiwan would like to see that the US and the Chinese mainland stabilize their relationship. It is not looking for worsening relations, but that is not the direction we are going in now. So Taiwan has to be very careful to protect its own interests as the US and the Chinese mainland pursue very different agendas in the Asia-Pacific region.
By the way, I don’t think Taiwan is being a troublemaker or springing surprises. Its representation in Washington is very conscious about preventing surprises and informing the US in advance of what Taiwan plans to do. The current mechanism is working quite well.
GT: Will China and the US get into a military conflict because of Taiwan?
Paal: It’s not impossible, but I think the US has no interest in getting into a conflict over Taiwan. I think China has much bigger issues. It has a longterm interest in reunification, but that’s a long-term interest, not a short-term interest. So on the present horizon, I don’t see sources of direct conflict over Taiwan. But accidents can happen. Someday some things might take place that would then escalate tensions very dramatically. Hopefully the kind of mechanisms that are in place
now will prevent that from happening. Part of this could help a lot if China would accept more informal but effective communications with the Tsai government – the way it did with the Ma Ying-jeou government previously – that would help to prevent surprises and frictions from getting out of hand.
GT: If such clashes do happen, to what extent do you think the US is willing to pay a military price for the island of Taiwan?
Paal: The US does not want to pay a military price for Taiwan. But if it must, to defend its interests and the Taiwan Relations Act requirements to provide for the self-defense of Taiwan, it will.
And there’s a very strong determination in the American Congress, I think, in the administration as well, to do what’s necessary to protect Taiwan. Hopefully we will never get to that point, because the Chinese mainland, the US and Taipei will all understand there are some things you do not do, because they will force the other parties to conflict. And we will try to avoid doing that.
GT: How will the 2020 US elections affect China-US relations?
Paal: China-US relations are not an issue in the American election right now, and I don’t think they will be, unless something surprising happens. People are more interested in our domestic economic condition and want to see progress of medical care, social security, education, and issues of that nature.
I think there is a fairly broad consensus among both American political parties that the US and China need to go through a period of readjustment of our relationship. Democrats might disagree about the way Trump’s making his adjustments of policy, but I don’t think they disagree with the need for adjustment.
GT: You said in 2013 that the future 10 years will see whether the US and China will coexist peacefully or clash. So how do you evaluate the bilateral ties in the previous years and how do you see the future relations?
Paal: By moving toward greater friction, I still think that the consequences of conflict between the US and China are so great that neither the leadership in the US nor the leadership in China would be willing to take that risk.
Even in the US where there is a very strong wave of criticism of Chinese behavior and activity, you have noticed recently that the practical suggestions from people who would be policymakers and future governments are becoming more moderate and reasonable. They too recognize that the conflict between the US and China would be a devastation for the 21st century.
GT: You once said that it is misjudgment that leads to conflicts between China and the US. How can the two countries avoid misjudgment?
Paal: I think the best way is for the two sides to speak together in detail on many issues across the board. Not talking to each other is very unhelpful and is the fastest way to get to misjudgment. But careful and patient listening to the other side’s comments and then offering one’s own comments on what that side has to say is a far better way of avoiding misjudgments.
We’ve got frictions in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. The US and China are developing nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities. We’ve got cyber and space mechanisms now. All of these would be good topics for discussion.
Plus humanitarian issues like, for example, managing the current outbreak in Wuhan with cooperation from the US CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] or National Institutes of Health might help contain such disease. And we have just announced that there will be a continuing economic dialogue. I think that is an important feature as well.