Putin seeks change to bring stability to succession of power
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin set into motion a historic political transition. It will take at least a decade and define what Russia will be by the middle of this century. If successful, the transition will be the first case of power and authority in Russia being passed on in an orderly fashion to a new generation of leaders to make sure the regime outlives its creator.
To Putin, such success would be the crowning glory of his entire term: When he eventually leaves the stage, Russia will have a stable political system. When Putin assumed power in 2000, he inherited the post-Soviet chaos. In the two-plus decades since, he managed to turn this chaos into a consolidated political regime. To future generations, Putin would want to leave the foundation of a stable state.
At least this is the plan the broad outline of which Putin revealed in the form of proposed amendments to the Russian Constitution. Basically, Putin has announced that he would leave the presidency by 2024. Acutely aware that his own full authority was non-transferable, he suggested reapportioning the formal powers among the key institutions: the presidency; the cabinet; and the parliament. Russia’s next president would serve a maximum of 12 years in office and would be stripped of the right to nominate or replace the prime minister. The prime minister, in future less dependent on the Kremlin, would form his cabinet; the premier would be chosen, and his ministers confirmed, by the State Duma. The Federation Council, the upper chamber, would be able to impeach senior judges, now appointed for life, and law-enforcement officers.
This looks like replacing the current highly personalist regime with a collective leadership in which the president, while being the primus inter pares – Putin stressed that Russia would stay with a presidential rather than a parliamentary system – would be flanked by a prime minister, fully in charge of economic and social policies, and the influential speakers of both houses of parliament. Yet, this new balance would need time to adjust and to be able to function without producing a gridlock. All politics, in the final analysis, is about individuals, but in Russia, an ambitious and powerful individual is the institution. This is one reason why Putin, while leaving the presidency, is not leaving the political arena. In fact, he would remain the guarantor of the system he has built and now amended; the mentor of his collective successors; and the arbiter of last resort.
For that, in Russia, one needs more than moral authority or even a title. One needs a platform with a status. The platform is already in place. For years, Putin has chaired a State Council, a consultative assembly of the country’s 80-plus governors, which debate important national issues and to advise the head of state. Until now, the council has had no status or special law regulating its activities. Soon, this will change. The status and the powers of the State Council will be enshrined in the Constitution. What has been rumored for some time is turning into a reality: When Putin leaves the presidency, he will continue as head of the State Council, with an elevated status and expanded prerogatives.
By being able to handpick the new leaders in the federal administration, and through direct control over the top regional administrators across the vast country – who also wield influence in the upper chamber of parliament and thus have a say in replacing senior judges and police officers, Putin is set to add real authority to his elevated status of Russia’s top senior statesman. The current President would turn into a President Mentor well equipped with real powers. In that role, he would continue to provide the political regime that he has created with the two indispensable supports: legitimacy built on his personal popularity; and the authority to arbitrate among the elite groups and clans that otherwise might tear the country apart.
In Putin’s reading of history, the capital sin of Russian leaders is loss of control. Both times it happened in the last 100-plus years – in 1917 and 1991 – this was due to the weakness of the head of state. Even when the party ruled the country, between those two dates, the problem of succession at the top plagued the system, and from time to time led to infighting and instability. With his plan, Putin is resolved to correct that, but he would need the Russian people to play along. So far, these people, mostly approving of Putin’s moves, are rather negative on the greedy elites ever chasing money and caring little about the country and its people. Unless these people see real improvements in their families’ finances, housing, health care, education, infrastructure, and pension situation, all the constitutional changes will mean little to them. This is what most of them have in mind when they say that they want change. And Putin is listening – the bulk of his speech was devoted to socio-economic issues and ambitious goals in dealing with them. However, unlike the President, the elites are harder to replace.