Meet with Biden a ‘ test’ for Suga’s diplomatic skill
China is expected to be the topic that dominates the upcoming talks between US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. Observers see this meeting would be more of a test, rather than a diplomatic accomplishment for Suga, who would put Japan’s politics, economy and security at risk if crossing China’s red line on Taiwan question with the US.
Out of fear of a rising China, Japan has been tilting toward the US to help the latter form an anti- China alliance. Yet such a mentality has blinded the island nation from seeing through the fact that Washington’s roping in Tokyo over the Taiwan question, interference in the Diaoyu Islands issue and recent endorsing Japan to dump radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the ocean, has not only increased instability in the Asia- Pacific, but also made Japan a “country non- grata” in the region, said Chinese experts, warning that in that case, it would be hard for a regionally isolated Japan to cut its reliance on the US.
Suga left Japan for the US on Thursday on a four- day trip to meet Biden, which makes the former the first foreign leader to be invited to the White House in the Biden administration.
Analysts have predicted that China would be high on the agenda of the two leaders’ talks.
The last time Japanese and American leaders mentioning Taiwan in a joint statement were Eisaku Sato and Richard Nixon in 1969.
China- Japan ties have plum
meted sharply ever since Tokyo signed a joint statement with Washington last month, lashing out at China in various fields, ranging from human rights to the Taiwan question. Japanese news outlets also reported that the two countries discussed a plan of closely cooperating in the event of a military clash between the Chinese mainland and the island of Taiwan. Yet no details of the plan were discussed.
The US is keen on putting Japan on the front line of its Indo- Pacific strategy to confront China, especially on the Taiwan question; yet Tokyo is hesitating as tagging along behind Washington will also put Tokyo in the front line of China’s counterpunch, Lü Xiang, a research fellow on US studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, told the Global Times.
As a close neighbor of China, Japan shouldn’t overestimate its ability to confront Beijing, as it will have consequences, be it on security, politics or the economy, that Tokyo cannot afford, Lü said.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army ( PLA) conducted an exercise near the island of Taiwan on Monday with the largest number of warplanes ever recorded, through which analysts said the PLA displayed its capability to drive away foreign forces from interfering in the Taiwan question.
Even the US is aware of its lack of capacity and a concrete plan to stop China’s reunification with the island of Taiwan, not to mention Japan, Li Haidong, professor at the Institute of International Relations at the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times.
Japan’s flirtation with the Taiwan question aims to follow the US, and to test China’s bottom line, and it will continue doing so. Yet in practice, it has very little resources and ability to interfere with this issue. Thus, the Suga administration’s talk on Taiwan question is merely symbolic, said Li, “while China has many arrows in its quiver to counter Japan,” according to Li.
China is far more important to Japan than Washington to Tokyo in terms of trade. China became Japan’s top export destination in 2020, leapfrogging the US and consuming more than 22 percent of Japanese goods sold overseas, according to data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance.
Japan’s economy surged in the fourth quarter of 2020, but it was not enough to pull the country from negative growth for the year. “Putting itself in the opposite of China at a time when Japan needs economic stimulus is a silly decision,” according to Lü.
The recent move of buttering up to the US shows that the Suga administration is the weakest Japanese cabinet in decades.
Suga inherited the policies of his predecessor Shinzo Abe; yet due to his lack of experience in international affairs, Suga’s lack of vision and weakness is fully exposed in his handling of China- Japan and Japan- US relations, said Lü Chao, a fellow at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences.
Lü Chao noted that traditionally, Japanese politicians, no matter China- hawks or pro- China figures, would be cautious in teaming up with the US.
Suga’s policies, which excessively rely on the US, will also meet strong backlash domestically and be hard to sustain, said the expert.
The expert said that “the visit to Washington will be an ordeal for Suga. It will be difficult for a wise politician to bow to the US’ pressure and make an irrational statement on China now.”