Russia cuts gas to Poland, Bulgaria

Move seen as ‘ deterrent’ amid West’s stepped- up military aid to Ukraine

Russia on Wednesday cut off gas to Poland and Bulgaria, the first since Moscow demanded ruble payments to buyers, which observers saw as “a substantial deterrent” when the West steps up support for Ukraine.

Russian state- owned energy giant Gazprom had informed Poland, which has been a transfer country for Western aid to Ukraine, and Bulgaria, which is 70 percent dependent on Russian gas, of the suspension.

Kremlin required “unfriendly countries” to pay Gazprom in rubles starting April 1.

Hungary, which is 100 percent dependent on Russian oil and gas, had agreed to pay in rubles. The UK issued a temporary license allowing payments to sanctioned Russian lender Gazprombank and its subsidiaries until the end of May for natural gas used in the EU, according to Bloomberg.

“It stands a high chance that Russia will suspend its gas supply to more European countries as the energy rift intensifies amid the escalating RussiaUkraine conflict,” Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU is “prepared” for a Russian gas stoppage and plans a “coordinated” response.

European gas prices jumped 24 percent amid the cuts and oil prices also spiked.

Energy prices will remain at a high level in the coming years as Europe scrambles for possible yet expensive alternatives, while Russia looks to other buyers including India, the expert said.

The EU imported more than 40 percent of its total gas consumption from Russia in 2021.

Cui Heng, an assistant research fellow at the Center for Russian Studies of East China Normal University, told the Global Times on Wednesday that Europe may manage to find alternatives, but the problem is whether it can afford the huge extra costs when many European countries are facing severe inflation.

Lin also noted the European goal to diversify energy sources requires a large amount of infrastructure, such as the building of new pipelines, and the process could take years.

Meanwhile, Germany agreed to deliver heavy weapons – Gepard anti- aircraft systems – to Ukraine on Tuesday at a meeting of defense ministers from 40 countries, convened by the US, to discuss further arming Ukraine and providing longterm support. It is the first heavy weapons Germany decided to deliver to Ukraine and Western media reported the commitment as a major shift from the country’s cautious attitude toward military aid to Kiev.

Such move is a compromise made to heal Germany’s internal conflicts that could threaten the stability of domestic governance and to satisfy Western allies who have been pushing Germany to make a more substantial military commitment, experts said.