How will situation evolve after Israel-Iran tit-for-tat?
Condemnation against Iran has been overwhelming in Western media since Saturday night, after Iran launched an attack on Israel in retaliation for an April 1 deadly Israeli strike on an Iranian embassy. Social media is abuzz with predictions of an imminent all-out war. Many Chinese experts, however, believe that this round of crisis is almost coming to an end.
The majority of Western media writeups and Western officials’ public statements touch upon the news as if the embassy strike didn’t happen. Take US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who called Iran’s assault “unprecedented,” claiming “we condemn these reckless and unprecedented attacks by Iran... We will not hesitate to act to protect our forces and support the defense of Israel.”
More Western officials have been talking about defending Israel and its right to defend itself, while downplaying the fact that Israel’s cross-border bombing of the Iranian embassy was a wrong and provocative move to begin with. Iran’s reaction did not happen out of the blue.
Observers view Iran’s action as restrained. US intelligence knew in advance that Iran could strike, with an Iranian official as the source. In other words, Iran hinted to the US about the strike beforehand.
On Sunday, the US announced that American forces helped Israel down “nearly all” of the drones and missiles fired by Iran. An Israeli army spokesman said on the same day that Iranian strikes caused “minor damage” to an Israeli base.
After the strike, Iran’s Chief of Staff said, “our attack is over and we do not wish to continue it, but we will respond forcefully if Israel targets our interests. Our response will be greater than last night if Israel takes action.”
Experts noted that if Iran were to desire to engage in war, its counterstrike should be unexpected, catching Israel off guard, and it should have been larger in scale, and occurred sooner in timing with severer consequence than “minor damage.”
Israel is having a bunch of headaches now – being surrounded by enemies, the ongoing conflict with Palestine, growing domestic anti-war sentiments and calls for early elections. “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political fate is tied to this conflict. Under pressure, he is trying to prolong and escalate the war, dragging Iran and the US into the mess. However, Iran’s response indicates that Teheran is not taking the bait,” Ding Long, a professor with the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, told the Global Times.
Nor does the US want to be trapped into joining the fight. Out of political correctness, US President Joe Biden condemned Iran after the strike. But at the same time, reports show that Biden told Netanyahu during a call on Saturday that the US won’t support any Israeli counterattack against Iran.
Washington has been trying to reach a strategic shift to the Asia-Pacific region. The current situation in the Middle East obviously requires the US to invest more attention and resources in the region. This is apparently contrary to the US’ macro strategy. Not to mention the US cannot afford another conflict in the Middle East, especially in an election year.
If Israel would not retaliate, or retaliate but in a controllable range, this sudden crisis can be settled soon, with Israel not having suffered major losses, demonstrating its defensive capabilities and Iran having vented its anger, showing the world its attacking power.
But who knows. The biggest nightmare in the Middle East is that peace is always immensely difficult to reach, and war is always terribly easy to occur.
Fortunately, observers sensed a positive change in the midst of crises.
With the decline of the US hegemon, its unconditional support for Israel is shrinking. Just forces are rising across the globe at the same time. The US and Israel are no longer the only ones who have a say on the Gaza puzzle.
In March, the UN Security Council voted to adopt a resolution demanding an immediate humanitarian cease-fire in Gaza, the US abstained after multiple vetoes. Washington did not necessarily want to abstain, but it had to consider the pressure from the international community, Li Weijian, a research fellow with the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, told the Global Times.
Li said that in the past, it was generally believed that the Israel-Palestine issue was unsolvable, with Israel unwilling to compromise, the US standing behind Israel, and other Arab countries powerless. However, when Palestine applied to join the United Nations as a full member state, many countries expressed their support. Even some Western countries, including the US, are gradually realizing that the two-state solution, long emphasized by China, is the fundamental way to unlock the key.
The challenges ahead are substantial, and the road ahead is long. But at least a momentum of international consensus toward the Middle East turmoil is taking shape in the right direction.