Foreign banks raise China’s 2024 GDP growth outlook after impressive Q1

A number of foreign banks and institutions have upgraded forecasts for China’s GDP growth for 2024 after the economy expanded by an impressive 5.3 percent in the first quarter, well above market expectations.

These bullish outlooks offer a strong rebuttal to the “Peak China” rhetoric.

UBS on Wednesday upgraded its forecast to 4.9 percent from 4.6 percent.

UBS Chief China Economist and Head of Asia Economics Wang Tao said that China’s better-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter and a strong export outlook led the investment bank to upgrade the forecast.

Development Bank of Singapore (DBS) raised its full-year growth forecast to 5 percent, up from the previous estimate of 4.5 percent, after the release of China’s economic data on Tuesday.

DBS said that China’s firstquarter economic growth exceeded market expectations, with exports showing resilience. Accelerated infrastructure and manufacturing investment offset the pressure from slowing real estate investment.

ANZ on Tuesday revised its China GDP forecast for 2024 to 4.9 percent as the country’s GDP in the first quarter was higher than its previous forecast.

Major indicators showed that China’s economy is steadily progressing and achieving a strong start to the year.

Retail sales grew 4.7 percent year-on-year to 12.03 trillion yuan ($1.66 trillion) in the first quarter, while industrial addedvalue was up 6.1 percent, and fixed-asset investment rose by 4.5 percent to 10 trillion yuan, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.

China’s total merchandise trade expanded 5 percent yearon-year in yuan terms in the first quarter, setting new records in both scale and the pace of growth.

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup recently released separate reports stating that China’s economy is off to a good start in 2024 and the GDP growth target of “around 5 percent” set by the Chinese government can be achieved.

Goldman Sachs upgraded China’s GDP growth for 2024 to 5 percent from 4.8 percent .

Meanwhile, Citigroup said that it lifted its forecast to 5 percent from 4.6 percent previously.