Census data to shine spotlight on China’s critical social policy issues

China will release the outcome of its eagerly anticipated census today, with attention on the change in the total population given its potential to shape government social policy and the country’s economic outlook.

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) commissioner Ning Jizhe will head a press conference from 10am, according to the State Council Information Office, after the initial results of the once-in-adecade census were delayed from their expected early April release.

The outcome of the census will cast a spotlight on long-standing issues such as ending restrictions on the number of children a couple can have, raising the retirement age, and abolishing the decades-old household registration system, known as hukou, which limits the mobility of workers, restraining overall economic growth.

At the end of last month, the NBS released a statement denying a Financial Times report that the population of the world’s secondlargest economy fell last year, which would have been the first decline since 1961.

Demographers still believe the population is likely to begin declining in the next few years, after rising to 1.4 billion in 2019 from 1.39 billion a year earlier.

In its most recent estimate last November, the government said it expected the population to peak in 2027. Beijing has said in the past the annual gap between the number of newborns and the number of deaths will shrink significantly to around 1 million people over the next five years.

But He Yafu, an independent expert on the country’s demographics, last month predicted the population would begin to fall as soon as next year, as the number of births declines to 10 million and the number of deaths surpasses 10 million.

Any drop in the population would be the first since a two-year decline in 1960-61 due to the impact of the Great Chinese Famine.

China conducted its seventh national population census in November and December last year, gathering a range of personal and household information pertaining to age, education, occupation, migration and marital status of people living in the world’s most populous nation.

Last year was the first time the population census collected citizen’s personal ID numbers, raising privacy concerns, although officials said the information would be kept confidential.

Census takers also used a smartphone app to collect information, with support from Chinese tech giant Tencent. The government tailored the way it conducted the census to account for how the coronavirus outbreak was affecting different regions, with data in high-risk areas collected by phone or online.

The previous six population censuses were conducted in 1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010.

There are already signs that the national birth rate and population are on the verge of falling, with some experts warnbelow ing of grave consequences. Beijing, which has a population of around 21 million, suffered a 24.3 per cent decline in its birth rate in 2020 compared with a year earlier, according to official data.

China also saw 10.035 million new registered births in the household registration system last year, down from 11.79 million in 2019, although this figure does not include the entire population.

In response to its ageing population, the central government confirmed earlier this year that it would start to raise the retirement age by a few months every year.

The mandatory retirement age has remained unchanged at 60 for men and 55 for women – or 50 for blue-collar female workers – for the past 40 years.