Spat with France leaves allies in a spot

Ambassador’s speech on ‘deceit’ by Canberra shocks diplomatic circles

Almost two months since France and Australia first clashed over Canberra’s decision to buy American nuclear-powered submarines, the war of words between both has shown no signs of abating, sparking questions about the longer-term implications of the fallout.

Last week, French ambassador Jean-Pierre Thebault, who recently returned to Canberra after being recalled to Paris following the Aukus alliance announcement, shocked the diplomatic community when he said the Australian government’s “deceit was intentional”.

He was referring to a leaked text message from French President Emmanuel Macron to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison that was sent two days before Canberra cancelled an A$90 billion (HK$516 billion) deal with France’s Naval Group. The deal, signed in 2016, was for 12 diesel-powered submarines, known as the Shortfin Barracuda.

The furore over the leak came as Macron accused Morrison of lying and unfairly keeping France in the dark about the deal.

Thebault’s speech and the unravelling Australia-France relationship made diplomats nervous, Australia’s national broadcaster ABC said in a report.

It quoted Japan’s ambassador to Australia Yamagami Shingo as saying that while Tokyo understood France’s disappointment, he was worried about the threat to cooperation between like-minded democracies in the region.

“Our situation does not allow for the luxury of this dispute to continue between partners,” Shingo said.

“Who would rejoice in these developments? That is the question that we have to ask ourselves.”

However, Bill Hayton, an associate at Chatham House in London and author of a book on the South China Sea, said the governments of Southeast Asia were “looking at the spat with some bemusement”.

“Everyone knows that governments play dirty when it comes to big arms deals. They watched

France grab the original Australian submarine deal from under Japan’s nose, for example,” he said. “Southeast Asian governments want as many outside powers to take an interest in the region as possible.”

But unlike Canberra’s tensions with Beijing that have resulted in trade sanctions, a possible hit to Australia’s international education industry, and a huge hit to its A$1 billion wine exports to China, Hayton and other analysts said there might not be a similar downgrade in relations with Paris.

Alexandre Dayant, a French national who researches Asia and the Pacific Islands at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, said France and Australia were cognisant of their shared interests.

France has three territories off Australia’s eastern coast – New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna, and French Polynesia. It has 1,000 troops stationed at a naval base in New Caledonia.

Both countries have also agreed to boost engagement in the Indo-Pacific, giving priority to political, defence, security and intelligence ties.

Hayton said the Indo-Pacific Strategy France had been building since 2012 was “founded on three partnerships: with India, Australia and Japan”.

“Australia is, in effect, a ‘bridge’ between French territories in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific, so it is logical for the two countries to cooperate,” he said.

Dayant referred to the upcoming national elections in France and Australia, saying the current fractious ties had to do with “personal politics and a domestic agenda that needs to be met and nothing to do with collaboration” in the Pacific.

Morrison has to call for polls by the end of May, while France’s presidential election is in April.

Our situation does not allow for the luxury of this dispute to continue

YAMAGAMI SHINGO,

JAPANESE AMBASSADOR TO AUSTRALIA