Despite small economic role, Moscow has ‘oversized’ influence in Africa
Exports threatened by sanctions like wheat and weapons affect many countries on the continent
When the motion was put to a vote, only one African country came out in support of Russia.
Eritrea was the sole country on the continent to support Moscow and vote against a motion at the United Nations General Assembly condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
While many voted in favour of the resolution, about half of the African countries abstained, reflecting the influence Russia has on the continent.
Despite being a small economic player in Africa compared to other nations such as China, Russia has political, military and resource ties with the continent that have a direct effect on life in Africa, observers say.
Joseph Siegle, research director for the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies at the National Defence University in Washington, said the UN vote overwhelmingly condemned Russia, and the invasion had been clearly denounced by the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States, and leading democracies including Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, and Nigeria.
“So, openly collaborating with Russia for the near future will carry significant reputational costs. As the human costs from Russia’s unprovoked war mount, ties with Russia will become even more problematic,” Siegle said.
But some countries were prepared to hedge their bets. “In Africa, only Eritrea voted with Russia. Another 23 African countries abstained or did not vote. This conveys that many African countries either are reluctant to anger Russia or want to keep their options open,” he said.
It might seem surprising, given the size of trade between the two parties. Russia-Africa trade stands at about US$20 billion, with imports from Russia worth US$14 billion, a fraction of the more than US$200 billion in China-Africa trade.
Gracelin Baskaran, a Bye-Fellow in economics at the University of Cambridge, said Russia bought less than 1 per cent of Africa’s exports overall but it did play a larger role in some of the continent’s poorest economies, such as Malawi, which sent 8.1 per cent of its exports to Russia, and Nigeria which sent 4.1 per cent.
One of the areas of vulnerability for some African countries is wheat, according to Yvonne Mhango, economist for Sub-Saharan Africa at Renaissance Capital.
She said Russia and Ukraine accounted for about 30 per cent of the world’s global wheat exports, and Ukraine for 15 per cent of corn exports.
“So disruption to supply due to sanctions and the war will push up prices of wheat and corn, and of cereals in general,” Mhango said.
“We expect Africa’s biggest wheat consumers to be the most affected, particularly if they import most of what they consume,” Mhango said.
“Wheat accounts for half of Egypt’s cereal consumption and almost two-thirds of it is imported. Ghana and Kenya also consume a lot of wheat; it accounts for one-third of their cereal consumption and most of it is imported.”
“Commodity exporters are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of this conflict.”
But Russia’s big commodity influence is on global energy prices.
As the conflict drove crude oil prices past US$100 per barrel, oil producers such as Angola, Nigeria, and Algeria would likely benefit from the price surge, but many oil-importing countries are starting to pay more.
Baskaran said energy prices had already risen around the world and risked going further. “There is a chance that Moscow could shut off gas exports altogether,” Baskaran said.
She said some foreign companies were also divesting from Russia but this could present an opportunity for African countries.
“Africa is home to more than 630 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves. Forty per cent of the world’s new gas discoveries in the last 10 years have been in Africa. The European Union would be a key buyer of African gas exports,” she said.
Russia’s influence goes beyond the commodities trade. As the continent’s largest supplier of arms, Moscow wields a lot of power in many nations in North, West and Central Africa.
Russia has been the biggest supplier of arms to Africa for the past 15 years and provides about half of all arms sold in Africa, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. This is more than double the next largest supplier, France, followed by the United States and China.
Siegle said the largest African customers of Russian arms, in order of sales, were Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, and Angola.
He said this was significant since it underscored Russia’s efforts to establish a foothold in North Africa. “Along with Moscow’s support to Libyan warlord Khalifa Hifter, this establishes a Russian presence along Nato’s southern flank, allows Russia to exert influence in the eastern Mediterranean, and enables Moscow to threaten key global chokeholds in the Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandab [Strait],” he said.
Moreover, Siegle said, the main ways that Russia had gained influence in Africa in recent years had been through unconventional tools – mercenaries, disinformation, election interference, arms for resources deals, and, most significantly, co-opting isolated, illegitimate African leaders.
“This is what has allowed Russia to gain outsize influence in Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Central African Republic, and Mali, despite providing less than 1 per cent of the foreign direct investment going into Africa,” he said.
“These [isolated] leaders are, for the most part, only clinging to power because of Moscow’s support. They have little choice other than to continue supporting Russia.
“With domestic pressure against these regimes growing and Russia’s ability to provide international political cover waning, these regimes are at risk of being toppled by popular revolutions.”
In the end, he said, Russia did not have much to offer African leaders other than coercive tools. If these were diminished, then so too would be Russia’s recent expanded influence on the continent, Siegle said.