DEMANDS BY MOSCOW HIT NUCLEAR DEAL HOPES
Uncertainty hangs over joint efforts to restore agreement as Russia seeks pledge from US that Ukraine sanctions will not hurt Tehran trade
Talks to revive Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers have been mired in uncertainty after Russia’s demands for a guarantee by the United States that the sanctions it faces over the Ukraine conflict would not hurt its trade with Tehran.
Moscow threw the potential spanner in the works just as months of indirect talks between Tehran and Washington in Vienna appeared to be headed for an agreement, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying the Western sanctions over Ukraine had become a stumbling block for the nuclear deal’s revival.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken sought to dispel the possibilities of such obstacles when he said that the sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine had nothing to do with a potential nuclear deal with Iran.
“These things are totally different and just are not, in any way, linked together,” Blinken said in a television interview.
He added that a potential deal with Iran was close, but cautioned that a couple of very challenging remaining issues were unresolved.
Yet a senior Iranian official told Reuters earlier that Tehran was waiting for clarification from Moscow about the comments from Lavrov, who said Russia wanted a written guarantee from the US that Moscow’s trade, investment and military-technical cooperation with Iran would not be hindered in any way by the sanctions.
“It is necessary to understand clearly what Moscow wants. If what they demand is related to the JCPOA, it would not be difficult to find a solution for it,” the Iranian official said, referring to the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
“But it will be complicated if the guarantees that Moscow has demanded are beyond the JCPOA.”
British, French and German diplomats who had flown home before Lavrov’s comments to brief officials on the nuclear talks have not indicated when they might return to Vienna.
Henry Rome, Iran analyst at consultancy Eurasia group, said reviving the nuclear pact without Russia was “tricky but probably doable, at least in the near term”.
“If Russia continues to obstruct the talks, I think the other parties and Iran will have no choice but to think creatively about ways to get the deal done without Moscow’s involvement,” Rome said.
After Moscow’s announcement, Iranian negotiators met the European Union’s diplomat Enrique Mora, who coordinates the talks between Tehran and world powers.
Since the election of Iran’s hardline president Ebrahim Raisi last year, officials have been pushing for deeper ties with Russia. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also been calling for closer ties with Russia due to his deep mistrust of the US.
The 2015 agreement – between Iran and the United States, France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China – eased sanctions on Tehran in return for limiting its enrichment of uranium, making it harder for Tehran to develop material for nuclear weapons. The accord fell apart after then US president Donald Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018.
A return to Iranian oil would help replace the lost Russian barrels as the US and its allies seek to freeze out Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine. It would also soften the impact of the sanctions on the West which is already struggling with high inflation.
It will be complicated if the guarantees that Moscow has demanded are beyond the JCPOA
IRANIAN OFFICIAL
US negotiator Robert Malley has suggested that securing the nuclear pact is unlikely to happen unless Tehran frees four US citizens, including IranianAmerican father and son Baquer and Siamak Namazi.
An Iranian official said if Tehran’s demands were met, the prisoners’ issue could be resolved with or without a revival of the nuclear deal.
Iran, which does not recognise dual nationality, denied US accusations that it took prisoners to gain diplomatic leverage. In recent years, Tehran’s elite Revolutionary Guards have arrested dozens of dual nationals and foreigners, mostly on espionage and security-related charges. Tehran has also sought the release of more than a dozen Iranians in the US.
The coming days are seen as pivotal by the West because of the rate at which Iran is making nuclear advances.