China’s ‘no-limits’ ties not enough to spur mediation

Beijing’s influence on Moscow’s decisions not as big as many think, foreign policy expert says

China’s influence on Russia is not big enough for it to mediate in the war, a mainland scholar says.

The cautionary note from a Eurasian foreign policy expert comes as Beijing faces diplomatic pressure to persuade “no limits” partner Moscow to end the war in Ukraine, which many worry could spill into a broader conflict.

Xiao Bin, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also dismissed claims Beijing knew of Moscow’s plans before Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered military operations in Ukraine on February 24.

Xiao’s arguments, published on the China-US Focus website, come at a time when China is struggling with some of the biggest challenges to its foreign policy, as its “no-limits” partnership with Russia – declared when Putin met President Xi Jinping ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics – comes under intense scrutiny.

Beijing has steadfastly refused to condemn the Russian invasion and rejected calls from the West to impose sanctions on Moscow as they have done. This has given rise to speculation that China – which is known to share Russia’s distrust of Western democracies – may come to Putin’s aid.

Still, there have been growing calls for China to use its influence on Russia to end the war, though Chinese leaders, including Xi, have repeatedly said Beijing was willing to work on mediation over the Ukraine war but it had to be done “in its own way”.

Xiao admitted that China’s position on the Ukraine war could hardly satisfy everyone, but argued that its influence on Moscow’s decisions was not as big as many supposed.

Russia, scarred by the legacy of the Cold War which undercut its great power status, and driven by a desire to be the leader of the Eurasian continent, has a “very strong motivation” to develop its relationship with China, Xiao said.

To that end, Moscow has “steered [ties] in a direction consistent with its own strategic interests”, he explained. “From the perspective of China-Russia relations alone, [their] comprehensive strategic partnership would not be able to restrict Russian adventurism.”

Moreover, the two countries’ “mutual interdependence” on the economic and trade fronts means these could “hardly become a diplomatic tool for bargaining with Russia”.

[Their] partnership would not be able to restrict Russian adventurism

XIAO BIN, SENIOR RESEARCHER AT THE CHINESE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES

“China is Russia’s largest trading partner and Russia is China’s largest source of energy imports, and economic and trade cooperation is vital to the stable development of their respective economies,” he wrote in his article published on Tuesday.

“In particular, China’s economic development is under unprecedented downward pressure and the stability of its energy supply is of paramount importance to China.”

China’s position has also been shaped by its perceived ideological differences with the West, he said.

“The more the US and its Western allies emphasise the ‘Chinese threat’ doctrine, the less likely it would be for China to align itself with the US and European countries in specific actions [against Russia],” Xiao wrote.