‘Win without sending in an army’: It is clear that Putin has not read The Art of War

As the war in Ukraine enters its third month, one wonders how much longer it will drag on. We can only hope for an early end to the destruction. In the meantime, please allow me to make some observations.

First, there is a symmetry between the background of this war and the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Then, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev planned to station (nuclear-armed) missiles in Cuba, and US president John F. Kennedy reacted by demanding that Khrushchev withdraw his plan, or face American attacks, a third world war notwithstanding. Khrushchev backed down, and Kennedy was hailed as a hero.

Modern Russia now, even though deprived of its republics, still regards itself in its former glory. The United States, and the West in general, have not given due consideration to this damaged self-esteem.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as the leader of a small neighbour, is also consumed with self-glory. He forgets that a war fought in your own country cannot be but a lost war. Russian troops and tanks may one day withdraw, but the massive destruction of factories, flats, hospitals, shopping malls, parks and roads will take a long time to repair. He has a lot of support from the West, especially the US, who may well be prepared to fight until the last Ukrainian has fallen.

Second, China could not have been forewarned of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As proof, consider the hurried withdrawal of its students and businessmen from the country after the war started. China seemed caught unprepared. I think that, for the Chinese leadership, war was very far from their minds because many avenues had not been explored or exhausted. To the Chinese, an issue as momentous as sovereignty over Taiwan cannot and will not be settled on the battlefield, hopefully.

Third, it is clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not read Sun Wu, also respectfully referred to as Sun Tzu, who lived during the Spring and Autumn Period in Chinese history, about 2,600 years ago. He taught that the supreme art of war is to win without sending in an army. Russia has a bear-like reputation for disregarding or even despising finesse, and it is only natural for Putin, as a true Russian, to behave as he does.

K.M. Lau, Mid-Levels East