Next leader faces challenge in militant hotbed of Mindanao
Whoever is elected president will have to deal with security and political complexities, analysts say
Pro-Islamic State militants in 2017 sprang a five-month siege on the southern Philippine city of Marawi in the terror organisation’s most serious assault in Southeast Asia, unsettling governments across the region.
The onslaught at Mindanao Island, led by the local Maute Group, was believed to involve fighters from Malaysia, Indonesia and the Middle East, and killed more than 1,200 people.
Today, Mindanao remains a hotbed for militant activities, as well as a long-running insurgency by the New People’s Army (NPA), the military wing of the outlawed Communist Party of Philippines.
The myriad groups pose serious security challenges for the Philippines, where Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jnr and VicePresident Leni Robredo are seeking the presidency on May 9. Whoever wins the election will have to deal with the security and political complexities in Mindanao, analysts say.
Zachary Abuza, of National War College in Washington, said the most serious security threats in Mindanao were factions that pledged allegiance to Islamic State (Isis), including the Abu Sayyaf Group, the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters and the Maute Group. Collectively, these groups are referred to as Daulah Islamiyah.
“Individually, they are small and more of a nuisance than a serious threat to the state, but collectively, they spread the resources of the Philippine government very thin,” said Abuza, who specialises in terrorism and insurgencies. “And when they actively cooperate – as the Abu Sayyaf and Mautes did in the 2017 siege of Marawi – they do so with devastating effect.”
During the Marawi siege, the Maute Group and the pro-Isis faction of Abu Sayyaf Group joined forces to take over the city.
Some members of Isis Southeast Asia, who surrendered after the fighting, had since taken part in extremist training organised by other terrorist groups with foreign funding, said Drei Toledo, an independent author and expert on the radicalisation of child soldiers.
The Philippine communist party’s military wing is also extending its operations.
Mimi Fabe, Professor in Financial Terrorism and Transnational Organised Crime at the Philippines’ National Police College, said the camps ran paramilitary and guerilla warfare training and were funded by Isis East Asia, the narco-terrorism assets from Isis and Afghanistan.
Other funders of the camps include local politicians who do not accept the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), and rogue members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), Fabe said. The region was established in 2019 as part of an agreement to end nearly five decades of conflict between the Philippine government and the separatist MILF.
“The peace process between the government and the MILF has done more to improve security, weaken the power of pro-Isis and pro al-Qaeda groups, and reduce the number of safe havens for foreign terrorist fighters,” Abuza said.
Independent policy analyst Michael Henry Yusingco said the formation of the BARMM had given Moro insurgents a chance to govern. But terrorist groups, kidnap-for-ransom gangs, private armies of warlords and disgruntled elements in the MILF and its rival the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) were still active.
“Their numbers have dwindled considerably since the establishment of the BARMM, but they still perpetuate terrorist attacks and criminal activities,” Yusingco said.
The BARMM is governed by the Bangsamoro Transitional Authority, which serves as the interim government until regional elections are held in 2025.
Benedicto Bacani, of the Mindanao-based think tank Institute for Autonomy and Governance, said the Philippines’ new president would have to handle the unfinished business of the peace process with the MILF, particularly the full decommissioning of its forces and the dismantling of private armed groups.
Of the two presidential candidates, front runner Marcos Jnr, the son of dictator Ferdinand Marcos, had been vague on his plans for the peace process and the BARMM, Bacani said.
“On the other hand, Leni Robredo has clearly expressed her support for the peace process.”