CHINA, U.S. TIES TO BE BALANCING ACT FOR MARCOS
Incoming president has chance to mend fences with Washington, analysts believe, but that could well create new tensions within region
Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jnr’s landslide victory in Monday’s presidential election could prove to be a double-edged sword for Southeast Asia, depending on how he positions the Philippines amid the ongoing superpower rivalry, according to analysts.
Marcos’ win was also a sign of democratic regression in a region that had in recent years witnessed a widespread decline in democratic norms and governance, the observers said, adding that there appeared to be a trend of growing support for autocracy in Southeast Asia and beyond.
Marcos Jnr is the son and namesake of the late Philippine dictator whose family has been synonymous with kleptocracy in Southeast Asia for decades.
The senior Marcos was ousted by a “people power” revolution in 1986 following two decades of rule, during which he was accused of egregious rights abuses and the plundering of more than US$10 billion from the country’s coffers.
Benjamin Ho, assistant professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said the Philippines’ ties with China and the United States would be keenly observed by the region. “It will be interesting to see whether Bongbong will follow his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte’s example in reaching out to President Xi Jinping of China and giving the Americans the cold shoulder after taking power,” he said.
Aries Arugay, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said Marcos would need to recalibrate ties not only with major powers but also his Southeast Asian neighbours.
He noted that when Duterte took office, his first state visits were to Association of Southeast Asian Nations members.
“There will be a fresh start,” Arugay said. “He can engage the US without the negative historical and personal baggage that Duterte had, and he can also ask China to negotiate with him.”
Charles Dunst, an associate at the Asia Group based in Washington, said Marcos might seek to use Asean as a platform to address the South China Sea dispute.
“(It) would help Marcos score political points at home but perhaps create friction with some of Asean’s more pro-China members,” Dunst said, adding that Marcos was expected to run a more professional and predictable administration than Duterte, which could smoothen cooperation with bloc partners.
Last month, Duterte and Xi stressed the need to exercise restraint in the South China Sea during a phone summit, according to Manila’s presidential office.
After taking office in 2016, Duterte pursued warmer ties with Beijing, setting aside a long-standing territorial feud over its claims in the South China Sea in exchange for billions of dollars in aid, loans and investment pledges.
For now, a Marcos presidency was likely to spell continuity in the Philippines’ approach to regional politics, suggested Chong Ja Ian, an observer of China’s influence in Southeast Asia.
Marcos may wish to develop ties with China, he said, but he might then find complications in Beijing’s continued arming of reclaimed maritime features in the South China Sea and efforts to enforce its writ in the disputed waters.
“That could spell continued momentum to develop security ties with the US.”
However, Dunst added that the traditionally strong US-Philippine alliance had been “somewhat adrift” since Duterte took office, and that Marcos might look to lean more towards Washington, especially given the popularity of the United States among Filipinos.
“But the Marcos family’s history – and outstanding US litigation against them – could complicate relations between Washington and Manila,” Dunst said.
Yang Jinglin, an associate professor at the Centre for ChinaAsean Studies at the Guangxi University for Nationalities, said that Marcos was likely to “maintain a distance with the US and will continue with Duterte’s China policy, especially in the South China Sea”.
The incoming Philippine president was likely to strengthen security cooperation within Asean, reduce military dependence on the US and seek to weaken the political influence of major powers within Southeast Asia, she said.
Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Marcos’ victory was “terrible for democracy in the Philippines and adds to the regional democratic regression”.
“It shows impunity, there was never any real punishment for the Marcos family’s actions, and it is likely Marcos Jnr will further degrade Philippine democracy after Duterte,” he said.
Arugay added that other Southeast Asian governments might have been more “uncomfortable” if election rival Leni Robredo had won, judging from the democratic ideas that she represented.
“Democracy has been in deficit in the region for a very long time,” he said.
The Marcos family’s history … could complicate relations [with] Washington U.S. ANALYST CHARLES DUNST