Taiwanese membership of the Quad security partnership is more about hope than reality
In March, Taiwanese Vice-President William Lai announced Taiwan’s desire to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which comprises the US, Japan, Australia and India. Incorporating Taiwan into the grouping may have strategic value.
First, it could help draw a red line which China is warned not to cross, given the recognition of Taiwan on par with some of the US’ closest allies. Second, this categorisation could buttress the Quad’s determination to counterbalance China’s influence. Coordinated efforts ranging the gamut – diplomacy, economic activities and intelligence sharing – could cement mutual ties. It could also make Beijing think twice before launching military assaults against Taiwan.
For Taiwan, the membership ticket lies not in its enthusiasm but in the resolve of Quad members. In the US’ 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy, Taiwan was hailed as one of America’s “leading regional partners”. The United States further underscored its intent to collaborate with regional partners “to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”.
However, it’s touch-and-go whether Taiwan will join the Quad, as India has yet to express its support. New Delhi has enhanced economic ties, including discussions on free trade, and fostered cooperation in education and research with Taipei. While India’s Act East Policy and Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy feature each other, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has refrained from issuing any statements in support of Taiwan.
Also, Quad membership for Taiwan could be read by Beijing as a provocative action meant to contain China, potentially causing it to lash out and step up its belligerence towards Taipei. To China, such a move would mean the end of the four Quad members’ one-China position. If the Quad is already seen by Beijing through a containment lens, Taiwan’s membership application could bring it closer to the very crisis it seeks to avert. Taiwan’s desire to join the Quad should be noted, especially after the four members agreed that what is happening to Ukraine should not be allowed to happen in the Indo-Pacific. For the Quad to become the Quint, though, there remains a huge gap between hope and reality.
Huynh Tam Sang, international relations lecturer,
University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam