KMT sweep at local polls no guarantee of presidential victory

Lower-tier elections, whether municipal or regional, tend to be seen as referendums on higher government and a pointer to the outcome of the next presidential vote. Taiwan’s local polls are no exception. The Kuomintang (KMT), the island’s main opposition party, made big gains across the board at the expense of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). But in this case it is far from certain they will translate into success at the higher level. The presidential election – due in little more than a year – remains either party’s to win.

Local issues eclipsed the security strategy on which the independence-leaning DPP campaigned. Appeals to patriotism and concerns such as China-United States relations or the perceived threat from the mainland did not resonate strongly and failed to get supporters out. The effect of Covid-19 on the economy, in the form of more unemployment and business shutdowns, did not help. Voters focused on domestic issues such as infrastructure, jobs, traffic congestion and held their grievances against the DPP. Prominent among these is the government’s handling of the pandemic, having initially won international plaudits for it. The death toll was blamed on failure to secure an adequate supply of vaccines.

In such a socio-economic environment, as analysts have pointed out, voters are hardly likely to support the status quo. As a result, after four years of electoral setbacks, the KMT celebrated victories in Taipei and three other key municipalities. The DPP suffered its worst defeat, holding onto just two key municipalities. Despite the rout, no one is really any the wiser as to the outcome of a presidential election that will not be about local community issues, but much more politically focused on the Taiwanese identity, cross-strait relationship and China-US relations.

With KMT celebrations over, it is too soon to anticipate victory in 2024. The DPP has ample time to reflect on voter sentiment and the folly of complacency. Notwithstanding the focus on domestic issues, Beijing can be expected to feel encouraged by the KMT victory, since it remains opposed to independence. But cross-strait relations will not be greatly affected by local-level elections. The KMT has to take a domestic audience into account and Beijing knows the DPP and KMT are not that far apart when it comes to Taiwan-US relations. The KMT is also very US friendly. What sets it apart is awareness that a bid for independence would lead nowhere except to catastrophe.

The DPP needs to reflect on the result if it is to bounce back from the pandemic. The lesson is as old as politics itself. If a party is to convince a majority of voters that it deserves to stay in power, it must show it understands that the economy, or livelihoods, count, no matter how distracting or momentous politics and geopolitics.