Can a free-trade agenda triumph over Trumpism?
Robert Delaney says a Republican congressman’s comments on the Trans-Pacific Partnership could indicate a shift against the culture war the party has been leaning into
Republican congressman Tom Cole showed some bravery earlier this month when he lamented the United States’ formal withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Framing his thoughts on the matter as a “personal opinion” during a House Rules Committee hearing on “China’s coercive economic tactics”, the congressman from Oklahoma asserted that failure to pass the TPP was “one of the great mistakes” of the 2015-16 congressional session.
And here was the shocker that he added: “With all due respect to the Obama administration, which was for it, once the two nominees – one of whom was going to win – were against it, it was pretty much done and finished here and that was a missed opportunity.”
The other nominee was Hillary Clinton, who, after spending years as president Barack Obama’s secretary of state talking about the importance of that administration’s pivot to Asia, suddenly disliked the TPP when she realised that Donald Trump’s portrayal of the US-led trade and investment pact as a killer of American jobs had gained traction.
Clinton apparently realised how entrenched resentment of trade deals had become among the general electorate, but wasn’t sharp enough to see she had no hope of beating Trump rhetorically on this front. Faced with the success of Trump’s “America first” rhetoric – a policy that would eventually antagonise Washington’s most important allies – she simply walked away from the TPP, claiming that it didn’t meet the “high bar” that she expected.
Trump’s characterisation of his withdrawal from the TPP as “a great thing for the American worker” was as fallacious as his assertion that the trade war he started with Beijing in 2018 would bring jobs back to the US and cut the deficit with China. Not to mention his portrayal of the Paris Agreement as a global plot to destroy the US economy, even though the ravages of climate change had been apparent for years.
Whether Tom Cole’s recent remarks signal a broader shift within the Republican Party ... remains to be seen
Cole’s stance reflects the civil war that rages within the Republican Party, and indicates there might be limits to the extent to which the party will build its unspoken alignment with the world’s autocracies.
With Florida Governor Ron DeSantis set to announce his candidacy for president in next year’s election, the party’s leadership is fully devoted to a nationalist-populist culture war that Chinese President Xi Jinping has already won through assiduous consolidation of power in his country and that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is also known for.
Folks such as DeSantis will forge ahead with initiatives like the prohibitions against Chinese property ownership that he signed into law earlier this month to divert attention from his efforts to undermine the liberal rules-based order that America built, in favour of the sort of social order that the Chinese government has established.
Experts have pointed out how such exclusionary government interference in the market is not likely to withstand legal challenges. But the theatrics and deafening political rhetoric that accompany such moves outweigh the costs of a defeat in the courts.
Meanwhile, the party pushes ahead with laws that put the government in control of decisions about reproductive health and gender identity, which they portray as efforts to protect children.
On that note, the party should be demanding that the Justice Department take more action against the Catholic Church, where child abuse has been rampant for decades, if not centuries. Just last month, Maryland’s top prosecutor accused church officials in Baltimore of a years-long cover-up of the sexual abuse of more than 600 children. But the party won’t because the promotion of Christian theology has become as important to it as the right to carry assault weapons, another cause of violence against children.
Whether Cole’s recent remarks signal a broader shift within the Republican Party, one that puts it back in a position to beat Democrats in general elections, remains to be seen.
Before we give Cole further credit for sticking his neck out, though, we should acknowledge that he – along with 146 of his congressional Republican colleagues – voted against certification of President
Joe Biden’s victory in 2021, immediately after Trump encouraged an armed mob on the Capitol.
Does the distinguished gentleman from Oklahoma wish to bring the party back to the free trade agenda that it used to espouse or stick with the wing of the party twisted into Trump’s image? He might also try to have it both ways, making the outcome of the Republican Party’s civil war anyone’s guess.