Incursions by Kyiv ‘may stretch Russian defences’
A two-day incursion by Ukraine into Russia’s western borderlands could force the Kremlin to divert troops from the front lines as Kyiv plans a major counteroffensive to deal Moscow a psychological blow, according to analysts.
Though Kyiv had denied any role, the biggest cross-border raid from Ukraine since Russia invaded 15 months ago was almost certainly coordinated with Ukraine’s armed forces as it prepared to attempt to recapture territory, the experts said.
“The Ukrainians are trying to pull the Russians in different directions to open up gaps. The Russians are forced to send reinforcements,” said Neil Melvin, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute.
Ukraine said it planned to conduct a major counteroffensive to seize back occupied territory, but Russia has built sprawling fortifications in its neighbour’s east and south in readiness.
The incursion took place far from the epicentre of fighting in Ukraine’s Donbas region and around 160km from the front lines in the northern Kharkiv region.
“They’ll have to respond to this and put troops there and then have lots of troops all along the border area, even though that may not be the way the Ukrainians are coming,” Melvin said.
Russia’s military said it had routed militants who attacked its western Belgorod region with armoured vehicles, killing more than 70 “Ukrainian nationalists” and pushing the remainder back into Ukraine.
Kyiv said the attack was carried out by Russian citizens, casting it as home-grown, internal Russian strife. Two groups operating in Ukraine – the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom of Russia Legion – have claimed responsibility.
The groups were set up during Russia’s full-scale invasion and attracted Russian volunteer fighters wanting to fight against their own country alongside Ukraine and topple President Vladimir Putin.
Mark Galeotti, head of the London-based Mayak Intelligence consultancy and author of books on the Russian military, said the two groups comprised antiKremlin Russians ranging from liberals and anarchists to neo-Nazis. “They’re hoping that in some small way they can contribute to the downfall of the Putin regime. But at the same time, we have to realise that these are not independent forces … They are controlled by Ukrainian military intelligence,” he said.
Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak repeated Kyiv’s position that it had nothing to do with the operation.
The United States said it did not “enable or encourage” Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, but that it was up to Kyiv to decide how it conducted military operations.
Several similar incursions into Russia have occurred in recent months, and although this week’s was the largest known so far, it was still tiny compared to frontline battles.
Alexei Baranovsky, a spokesman for the political wing of the Freedom of Russia Legion, said in Kyiv that he could not disclose the number of troops involved in the operation, but that the legion had four battalions in total.
Baranovsky denied there had been heavy losses and dismissed Russian reports of large casualties as disinformation.
He said the unit was part of Ukraine’s International Legion and therefore part of its armed forces, but denied the incursion was coordinated with Ukrainian authorities.
“These are the first steps in the main objective of overthrowing Putin’s regime through armed force. There are no other alternatives,” he said.