Global South rises up

Alexander Gorlach says last week’s G7 summit hints at what a fairer world order might look like

The invitation of Brazil, India and Indonesia, among others, to the Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima, Japan, last week highlighted the changing international order. When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky flew in to Hiroshima, he did so not to convince the already-aligned representatives of the richest democracies in the world to continue to support his cause.

Rather, it was to win over the leaders of the aforementioned countries, who are among the so-called Global South. India and Brazil, for instance, have maintained a different stance from the Western world on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, hindering the defence efforts of Kyiv and its allies.

While it is fair to say that neither New Delhi nor Brasilia have welcomed the unfolding of the war – as it has also inflicted negative consequences on them – they have still chosen to abstain in one way or another from condemning the aggression of Russian President Vladimir Putin and have so far not imposed sanctions on Russia, as other countries close to the United States have done.

Instead, Brazil and India have taken a neutral position on the war, as have other powers such as Turkey. In reality, though, each country has positioned itself to either benefit from the war or at least not suffer damage as a result of it.

While Turkey has maintained relations with both Kyiv and Moscow, China has supported the Kremlin’s view on the war. It has even gone so far as to use the same language as Moscow, describing atrocities committed by the Russian army in Ukraine as a “special military operation”.

India, meanwhile, has imported oil from Russia at a discount and thereby profited from the war. It seems the farther a country is, geographically, from Ukraine, the more likely it is to follow its own interests and try to avoid being drawn into the conflict between two of the world’s powers.

Today, countries will not simply align with one of the established powers, as they might have done in the past

Countries in the Global South not only reject taking sides when it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they also largely refuse to take sides in the clash between the US and China. If they did have to choose, they would only hurt their own interests and potentially hold back their economic and social development. Too much is at stake for them to risk angering either side.

By the end of the 1980s, the G7 accounted for almost 70 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product. By 2021, that figure had been reduced to 44 per cent. The demographics of the G7 countries are not encouraging, either, with ageing populations and low birth rates. India, meanwhile, is now the world’s most populous nation, according to UN projections, and has the fifth-largest economy. Meanwhile, Brazil’s economy ranks 10th and Indonesia’s, 16th.

These burgeoning economic powers want to have more influence on the world stage. Today, countries will not simply align with one of the established powers, as they might have done in the past. They argue that the liberal, rules-based order does not treat them fairly, especially when they do not see themselves represented in the bodies that govern it. For instance, calls for reform of the United Nations Security Council have been largely ignored.

Some countries in the Global South also point out that the morality-based arguments made to support the actions of the world’s established powers often ring hollow. Unilateral invasions of other countries and selling arms to autocrats and dictators are seen as reeking of double standards and hypocrisy.

The era of European colonial rule in Africa and South Asia has long since past. These countries have distanced themselves from Western-led “moral” causes but, at the same time, this does not mean they will automatically embrace China and all its efforts to increase its influence in these parts of the world. Surveys of public opinion in recent years appear to show that the world is fairly evenly split when it comes to positive or negative views of China. These surveys suggest that views of China are more favourable in emerging economies such as Brazil and South Africa than in developed countries such as Australia and Germany.

In this changing environment, there are two options for aspiring powers. They can either be included in the established order in a way they believe gives them fair representation, or they can seek a new world order that will replace the one they see as unwilling or unable to accommodate them.

This is why China’s attempts to broaden the scope of groups in which it plays a leading role are drawing keen interest from the Global South. These efforts include expanding the scope and membership of the BRICS grouping and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation while establishing new forums such as the recent summit with Central Asian countries.

Presenting compelling arguments, winning over other nations by speaking to them on equal terms and not seeking to dictate from the moral high ground might be the only chance for the established world order to prevail. The G7 summit offered a glimpse of how a restored liberal international order might look in the future, but it still has a long way to go.

Dr Alexander Gorlach is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs, based in New York