Conflict with US, intervention in Taiwan top fears
Survey reveals what mainlanders perceive as the top security threats
Mainland Chinese people perceive international military intervention in Taiwan and confrontation with the United States as the top security threats facing their country besides the pandemic, a study has found.
In general, mainland citizens were most concerned about the US which, in their eyes, exerted the greatest impact on their nation’s security than six other countries and regions mentioned, and respondents most favoured Russia, according to the survey by the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University.
The centre published a public-opinion poll on mainland Chinese outlook on international security on Wednesday, in which 74.1 per cent of respondents said security threats against China from “confrontation and conflicts between China and the US” were high or somewhat high.
“It is worth our attention that people in China and the US have negative views about the other country,” institute director Da Wei said, noting the views were deteriorating along with US-China relations.
The survey data could help policymakers to better assess public sentiment towards security and strike a balance with elites’ views while providing a more accurate reference for overseas observers, he said.
The other threats drawing high attention were “international forces’ intervention in Taiwan” and the global pandemic, which were both deemed by 72.4 per cent of respondents as high and somewhat high threats against China.
The institute surveyed 2,661 citizens in November 2022 when Covid-19 restrictions were still looming, the same month President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden met for the first time in Biden’s presidency, in hopes of repairing fractured communications.
Bilateral ties have been hitting low points since the China-US trade war began in 2018, with mounting tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
Along with an intensified Chinese military build-up in the region, there have been increasing fears of armed conflict in relation to Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province, to be brought under mainland control.
Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, although Washington opposes the use of force to change the status quo.
Attitudes towards the direction of US-China relations are more ambivalent. While about 45 per cent said the situation would improve, about 30 per cent did not expect change. About 25 per cent said ties would deteriorate.
The online responses were collected randomly from population subgroups whose sex, age, region and census register (urban or rural) proportionally reflect the latest national census.
Over half the respondents said at the time the US had a “great” impact on China’s security, about triple the figure for Russia or Japan, the second and third countries reported by respondents to have the most impact on China.
The US is the least favoured country among the respondents, with almost 60 per cent of Chinese surveyed describing it as “unfavourable”, contrasting with the most favoured country, Russia, of which about 8 per cent said was “unfavourable”.
Da said the result was “unsurprising” and echoed opinion polls in the US, which show a worsening impression of China among Americans.
According to an annual poll by the Pew Research Centre, unfavourable views towards China hit a record 83 per cent of respondents in 2023.
In the Chinese survey, 36 per cent thought the US-China tensions were mainly because of “US factors only”, in contrast with the slight 2.6 per cent who said the issues were caused by “China factors only”, with the rest believing the major factors were “conflicting interests between China and the US”, “different ideologies” and “lack of mutual trust”.
Among seven countries or regions – including India, South Korea, the European Union and Southeast Asia – the respondents’ impression of Japan had a similar pattern as that of the US.
Some 57.5 per cent of respondents described their impression of Japan as somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable compared with 59.1 per cent giving the same negative impression of the US.
China and Japan historically have had strained ties, largely stemming from the Japanese occupation during World War II and territorial disputes over the Senkaku Islands, known in China as the Diaoyus. Tokyo’s push for greater security cooperation with the US, as well as its increased military expenditure, have heightened Chinese concerns.
On the war in Ukraine, 80.1 per cent believed the US and Western countries were “most accountable”, followed by Ukraine (11.7 per cent), and Russia (8.2 per cent).