ERDOGAN ‘LIKELY TO BALANCE TIES’ WITH CHINA, WEST
Turkish president expected to walk a fine line despite being a US ally but Beijing’s treatment of Uygurs will remain a challenge, analysts warn
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to continue a balancing act between China and the West in his third five-year term, but observers said Beijing’s treatment of the Uygur minority in Xinjiang would remain a challenge for ties.
President Xi Jinping congratulated Erdogan after he beat opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu – who had promised a West-leaning foreign policy – in a run-off election on Sunday.
Xi said China and Turkey had “broad common interests” in his message to Erdogan.
“In recent years, the development of the China-Turkey strategic cooperative relationship has maintained momentum, and practical cooperation in various fields has made positive headway,” Xi said in the message.
“I prize the development of China-Turkey relations and stand ready to work with Erdogan to promote mutual understanding and mutual support on issues concerning each other’s core interests and major concerns so as to boost the sustained, sound and stable development of the two countries’ strategic cooperative relationship,” he said.
Nilgn Yildirim, an associate professor at Atilim University in Ankara, said the election result could bring some relief to policymakers in Beijing.
“Erdogan’s turning the Uygur issue into a bargaining tool, at least behind the curtains, seems preferable for China in the face of the risk of Turkish opponents publicly denouncing its human rights violations both at home and abroad,” Yildirim said.
Erdogan has been re-elected at a time when Turkey is grappling with runaway inflation – as high as 44 per cent in April – and a collapsing currency. These crises will be top priority for the 69-yearold, along with his vision for the country to be a global power.
It also comes as ties between China and the United States continue to worsen over issues ranging from trade to military supremacy and human rights.
Turkey is a US security partner and a key Nato ally, but there have been tensions with Washington in recent years, including over Ankara’s purchase of Russian missile defence systems and its military operations in Syria.
Turkey also sought to buy US$20 billion worth of F-16s and 80 modernisation kits from the US. However, the sale has been stalled because of objections from the US Congress over Ankara’s refusal to give a green light to Nato’s enlargement, its human rights record and Syria policy.
Nato declared that China was a security challenge last year for the first time. But international relations expert Ma Xiaolin said Turkey was unlikely to follow Nato’s path on China.
“Erdogan’s foreign policy is very stable and the core is about balancing between the major powers – regardless of how Nato as a whole is positioned against China,” said Ma, from the Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou.
Kadir Temiz, an associate professor at Istanbul Medeniyet University, said the economic relationship between China and Turkey would continue to be the focus of their bilateral ties during Erdogan’s third term.
Temiz also said Ankara was promoting its Middle Corridor strategy to connect with Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. Officially known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, the trade route aims to link East Asia and Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.
Erdogan’s turning the Uygur issue into a bargaining tool … seems preferable for China
NILGUN YILDIRIM, ATILIM UNIVERSITY
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to dominate Turkish politics for a quarter of a century after voters re-elected him for another five years. A country that votes against change after 20 years would not normally be the focus of global attention. But that is not the case with a key Nato member and Chinese Belt and Road Initiative partner, whose independent foreign policy can irk East and West alike.
Erdogan defied runaway inflation and an economic crisis to win a historic run-off in the presidential election. The final 52.1 per cent to 47.9 per cent margin extends the rule that has both modernised and divided the Muslim country of 85 million.
He has wrought conservative transformation of Turkish society while asserting policy independence, attacking – though later toning down – criticism of China’s treatment of its Uygur minority; condemning the invasion of Ukraine and then refusing to join Western sanctions and increasing trade with Russia; and delaying and opposing expansion of Nato membership while remaining a United States security ally. There is no reason not to expect more of the same. Because of Turkey’s pivotal geopolitical position, there will always be underlying tensions.
Congratulating Erdogan, China’s foreign ministry said Beijing attached great importance to relations with Turkey. US President Joe Biden said he looked forward to continuing to work with Erdogan.
In 20 years at the top, first as prime minister and since 2013 as president, Erdogan elevated Islam and eclipsed civilian and military elites as he expanded his own power. Having lost their most serious challenge yet to Erdogan’s ascendancy, his opponents fear an unhealthy concentration of more power in his hands. Erdogan should heed his own appeal for national unity in the wake of a bitter election campaign with more inclusiveness.
Media speculation that Erdogan would be defeated turned out to be wishful thinking. The reality is that he is a populist who enjoys wide personal support, even if opponents claimed he had abused his power to take unfair electoral advantage. Given Turkey’s independence, its potential contribution to mediation in the Ukraine war should not be underestimated.