MANILA ROW ENDANGERS PLAN TO RESUME U.S. MILITARY TALKS
Beijing and Washington are taking risky path and must be careful to avoid escalation, analysts warn
Tensions between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea underscore the need for Beijing to resume military-tomilitary talks with the United States, analysts say.
Washington has stressed its commitments to the Philippines are “ironclad” and accused Beijing of “dangerous and destabilising” behaviour following a string of recent incidents, including collisions between ships and the use of water cannons against vessels trying to take supplies to Philippine troops stationed on the Second Thomas Shoal.
But China, in turn, says the US is being a troublemaker and inciting “provocative” actions from the Philippines.
Collin Koh, a researcher from Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the US wanted to establish what China’s intentions were and possibly warn against escalating things further.
“But my question is whether the other side will pick up the call – that’ll demonstrate whether the Chinese are indeed seeking to deliberately escalate,” Koh said.
Last month in San Francisco, Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden agreed to restore military communication channels, on ice after then US House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year.
Officials from both countries recently claimed the resumption of the channels was still on track, with the Pentagon insisting the two sides had been in “active coordination”.
Zhu Feng, an international relations professor at Nanjing University, said he believed recent confrontations between China and the Philippines would not disrupt the restoration of China-US military talks.
In the past, Beijing had blamed Washington, Zhu said, but it was unlikely to adopt this strategy now because it might undermine the agreement between Xi and Biden.
“It also shows the importance of resuming military exchanges between China and the United States to avoid accidental collisions … and amplifies the significance and role of military exchanges between China and the United States,” Zhu said.
However, some analysts warned that Beijing’s disputes with Manila over the Second Thomas Shoal could worsen.
“There are two factors that could impact on the communications between the two militaries, one is accidental encounters in the air and sea, the other is third party factors,” Hu Bo, director of the Centre for Maritime Strategy Studies at Peking University, said.
“If [Manila] insists on making trouble, it might increase the distrust and confrontations between China and the US.”
The Philippines and the US have improved their security alliance in the past year. In May, Washington and Manila said their mutual defence commitments would be invoked in the event of an armed attack on either “anywhere in the South China Sea”.
In addition to issuing diplomatic statements in support of the Philippines, the US is also reported by the online platform BenarNews to have deployed P-8 Poseidon aircraft near the Second Thomas Shoal providing “eye in the sky” support for a resupply mission in September.
“I don’t think any of the concerned parties seeks a premeditated armed conflict but the risks of an inadvertent clash cannot be dismissed and looking at how events unfolded recently, the chances of such risks have become elevated,” Koh said.
Referring to a public satellite image which showed 11 Chinese vessels inside the Second Thomas Shoal and dozens more clustered around its exterior last week, Koh said that development would “represent a serious escalation”.
“Essentially, what the Chinese are doing might potentially force the hand of the Americans.
He added that Beijing “probably bet the Americans wouldn’t up the ante, but this is a risky gamble since US credibility is at stake if it fails to respond in a resolute manner in supporting the Philippines against this latest move”.
If the US failed to respond, Koh said, there was a greater likelihood of China establishing de facto control of the shoal.
“So the risk of a clash may emanate from a Sino-Philippine clash, which may possibly draw the Americans into the fray since the mutual defence treaty could be invoked,” Koh warned.
But analysts also believe it is not in the interest of either Beijing or Washington to let the situation spiral into a bigger conflict.
“I don’t think Beijing wants to take any action that might invoke the ‘armed attack’ clause out of the US-Philippine Mutual Defence Treaty, so it will need to calibrate its escalations,” Ray Powell, director of the SeaLight project, which studies maritime “grey zone” activities, said.
Washington’s support for Manila has so far been “limited” to protests through diplomatic statements, according to Chen Xiangmiao, assistant research fellow at the China National Institute for South China Sea Studies.
“The United States just made diplomatic statements, but in reality, the frontline support of the Philippines and the US is relatively limited. Therefore, what the Philippines is worried about is whether the US will reduce its support for Manila because of Sino-US relations,” Chen said.
I don’t think any of the concerned parties seeks a premeditated armed conflict
COLLIN KOH, RESEARCHER