We are at beginning but may never see end of fossil fuel era
We have seen yet another UN climate change conference, this time in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates.
The objective of Cop28 and others before it has been to arrive at a set of globally acceptable rules that would ensure the rise in global average temperatures is contained to within 1.5 degrees Celsius of preindustrial levels. Unfortunately, after 28 editions of the meeting, there is no sign of us achieving that objective.
Despite talks and more talks, the Cop series has not addressed two important anthropogenic factors that contribute to climate change, namely, the population explosion and the disparity in per capita energy consumption across the world. The disparity is huge between most developed countries and developing countries. So where is equality and fairness?
Whether there is global warming or not, Earth’s resources should not be unnecessarily wasted, but instead be shared equitably. This is where geopolitics plays an important role.
It is a fact that temperature rises can be due to natural causes as well as anthropogenic causes.
The latter involves energy production and energy consumption. Greenhouse gases are emitted when energy is produced from fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal). The climate change summits have concentrated on energy production but paid less attention to reducing and/or making energy consumption more efficient.
The main focus of Cop28 has been on the wording of the final text. For obvious reasons, the oil-producing countries vehemently opposed language calling for a phase-out of fossil fuels.
After heated arguments, the summit closed with an agreement that signals the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era, by “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”. This lays the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emission cuts and scaled-up finance.
How this agreement will be implemented in a nationally determined manner to produce tangible global outcomes remains to be seen. After 28 years, we are at the beginning and may never see the end. What is for sure is that there will be a Cop29 in Azerbaijan next year.