Summit offers Marcos chance to boost his ratings
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s approval ratings may have nosedived ahead of his landmark trilateral meeting with US President Joe Biden and Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida next week but he has a chance to restore public faith in his administration through a recalibrated foreign policy.
Analysts say Marcos Jnr could turn things around by leaning into his growing alliance with the US and other countries against China.
The president’s approval and trust ratings plunged by 13 percentage points and 16 percentage points to 55 per cent and 57 per cent, respectively, in the first quarter of 2024, according to a non-commissioned quarterly survey by Pulse Asia. The results were a reversal from the fourth quarter of last year when his ratings rose marginally.
The survey released on Wednesday by the private pollster, which had previously predicted Marcos Jnr’s 2022 landslide election win, was conducted with 1,200 respondents nationwide from March 10 to March 16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
Marcos Jnr and his cousin House Speaker Martin Romualdez’s bid to amend the 1987 Constitution, as well as the president’s frequent foreign trips that yielded few tangible gains for the Philippines, probably contributed to his lower ratings, University of the Philippines political science professor Jean Franco said.
“I think the cha-cha [charter change] bid and the travels affected his ratings,” Franco said.
Marcos Jnr has visited 17 countries since assuming office in July 2022, ostensibly to attract more foreign investments in the Philippines. Despite his efforts, net foreign direct investments in 2023 dropped by 6.6 per cent to US$8.9 billion year on year.
The biggest rating declines came from the southern island of Mindanao, Metro Manila, and respondents in the povertystricken subgroup, according to the survey.
The results were not a surprise given the growing fissure between Marcos Jnr and the Duterte family, whose members remain highly popular in Mindanao, Franco said. “[Marcos] broke his promise” to help the poor in their financial difficulties, she added.
Prices of vegetables and other basic goods have recently stabilised, with some produce becoming cheaper because of the harvest season.
However, the price of rice remains high and Marcos Jnr has yet to make good on his election promise to bring it down to 20 pesos (HK$2.80) per kg.
The survey also showed a decline in Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio’s nationwide approval and trust ratings but not as much as for Marcos Jnr. Her approval and trust ratings dropped by seven percentage points each in the first quarter.
While Marcos Jnr’s trust rating in Mindanao plunged to 38 per cent in the first quarter from 70 per cent in the fourth quarter, Duterte-Carpio’s rating fell to 95 per cent from 96 per cent over the same period.
Marcos Jnr’s approval rating in Mindanao also fell to 40 per cent from 62 per cent.
Franco predicted that the arrest of Apollo Quiboloy, who heads a sect in Davao City in Mindanao and is a spiritual adviser to former president Rodrigo Duterte, for alleged sex trafficking and fraud could further worsen relations between the Duterte and Marcos-Romualdez families. The Dutertes “will protect their [Mindanao] turf no matter what,” she added.
Mindanao is one of the areas where the Philippine military is eyeing to build additional facilities for joint use with its American and possibly Japanese counterparts. Ronald Llamas, a political analyst and chairman of the Galahad Consulting Agency, said Mindanao was where Marcos Jnr suffered his biggest rating drops.
His ratings dropped because of cost of living issues such as inflation and his broken election promises, said Llamas, who was a presidential adviser on political affairs to the late president Benigno Aquino III. “It’s about the economy. It has less to do with politics and geopolitics.”
Nonetheless, Marcos Jnr could still boost his ratings by harnessing the goodwill brought on by his foreign policy pivot to the US, Llamas added.
“He can use the Filipinos’ overwhelming support for our claims in the West Philippine Sea and their overwhelming anger towards China. In that way, he can stall his [ratings] drop” particularly as the territorial row is set to become an election issue, according to Llamas.
Duterte’s anger towards the US presence in Mindanao was unlikely to affect Marcos Jnr as the island’s residents were “more pro-American than pro-China”, Llamas said. Llamas noted Marcos Jnr was losing the online battle to Duterte supporters and that he had not received public backing from any of his cabinet members to stem the slide in his ratings.