Ukraine’s drone tactics ‘offer valuable lessons for Taiwan’
Maritime devices are a game changer but island has long way to go to match PLA, analysts say
Over the course of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the battle for control at sea has repeatedly tilted in Kyiv’s favour. Without warships of its own, Ukraine has sunk or disabled several vessels from the vaunted Russian navy using only drones. Has the conflict signalled a new era in battle tactics, and are there lessons for Taiwan?
Remote-controlled unmanned boats were first used in warfare in World War II. In the decades since, many countries have advanced the technology.
Now, maritime drones are widely considered as a game changer in naval battles as observers watch Ukraine’s successes in hitting the Russian Black Sea Fleet – despite the fact the country had lost almost all of its surface vessels when Russia occupied Crimea in 2014.
Since the war broke out in 2022, Ukraine claims to have sunk or damaged 24 surface ships and one submarine – a third of the Russian fleet – with many of the attacks carried out by its sea drones. The latest hit was in early March when naval drones sank Russia’s newest patrol ship, the Sergei Kotov.
Ukraine has also deployed seabased drones and conducted successful attacks on key Russian infrastructure such as vital ports and the Kerch Bridge to Crimea. Such efforts enabled the partial resumption of Ukraine’s essential grain exports by sea which had been hampered by the Russian navy.
“Ukraine’s tactics are surely inspiring to all navies,” said Shanghai-based military analyst Ni Lexiong. “They are demonstrating that control of the sea could be obtained without stronger warships.”
Halfway around the world, the Taiwan Strait has become a potential flashpoint that observers fear may draw in the United States. As relations with Beijing have soured, Taiwan, whose military muscle is clearly no match for that of the People’s Liberation Army, has increasingly looked to the US for weapons and support.
For nearly three decades, the PLA has been building antiaccess/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities.
As mainland China becomes one of the world’s top military and civilian drone makers, it has unveiled a number of unmanned surface vessels (USV) and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV) at air shows and weapon exhibitions in recent years.
Two such models that have caught the attention of military observers are a 200-tonne trimaran stealth drone boat, which is benchmarked to the US Sea Hunter USV, and the 2,000-tonne autonomous research vessel Zhu Hai Yun, which could serve as a “mother ship” for more than 50 unmanned air, surface and undersea vehicles.
The Zhu Hai Yun made an appearance in the Taiwan Strait late last year when it sailed around the island and crossed into Taiwan’s 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone.
In the case of a military campaign against Taiwan, it is expected that the PLA’s unmanned surface and underwater fleets would be deployed in the western Pacific as part of an A2/AD line.
Loaded with missiles or loitering munition, these drones would carry out patrols and intercept and attack foreign warships and submarines – likely to be from the US Navy – preventing them from reaching the island.
More drone fleets could be configured with various functional payloads to assist in other PLA operations, such as minesweeping, electronic warfare, ground attacks or simply decoys.
In May, the US Navy would formally establish its second USV squadron, then US Pacific Fleet head Samuel Paparo announced in February.
The US Navy has already set up a drone fleet – the Unmanned Surface Vessel Division ONE (USVDIV-1) – which was officially established in 2022 and has been testing four ships in the IndoPacific: USVs Mariner and Ranger, and medium USVs Sea Hunter and Seahawk.
While the USVDIV-1 mainly experiments with medium and large USVs, the second division will focus on smaller surface vessels, and defence contractors have been asked to make pitches for small, lethal surface drones.
Last year, the US Department of Defence announced an ambitious “Replicator Initiative”, which is focused on “fielding thousands of autonomous systems across multiple domains within two years”.
The first tranche of the drones were reportedly selected in March.
In the event that the PLA launches a mass amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait, the US sea drones and loitering munitions could play a key role in disrupting Beijing’s landing plan, according to the Pentagon.
Ni said: “In an amphibious landing operation, the troop embarkation, ship crossing and beach arrival are the three most vulnerable points and could be easily targeted and damaged by either drones or missiles.”
If the PLA Navy carries out an amphibious operation on the island, remote-controlled Taiwanese maritime drones would also form one of multiple lines of defence, mainly targeting incoming warships or those near its coastline, since the island’s small and antiquated warships are no match for such attackers.
Inspired by Ukraine’s successes against the Russian navy, Taiwan’s defence industry has also ramped up mobilisation, though it still relies heavily on US supplies.
The National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology, the island’s governmentowned institution for weapons development, has launched a two-year, NT$812 million (HK$198 million) “unmanned attack vessel” development programme, which is expected to begin production of at least 200 boats in 2026.
According to local media reports, they would be operated by the island’s land force and deployed for suicide attacks against PLA vessels.
Private companies in Taiwan are also working on similar projects.
But as a latecomer to the drone era of warfare, Taiwan has been slow to adapt, according to Macau-based military expert Antony Wong Tong.
“In terms of quantity and quality, [Taiwan] has already fallen far behind even some third world countries. Without the support of US unmanned weapons, the situation would be completely onesided [to Beijing’s advantage],” Wong said.
Ukraine’s tactics are surely inspiring to all navies NI LEXIONG, MILITARY ANALYST