Fixing the corridor

Burak Elmali says China and Pakistan need better security and engagement with the Taliban

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a crucial pillar of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a massive project that includes Pakistan’s Gwadar port. But Baloch separatist groups have long targeted the project, and an escalation in attacks last month was clearly aimed at Chinese nationals and interests.

This cloud of insecurity casts a shadow over the future of this important economic corridor. Addressing these concerns through a multifaceted formula involving military, diplomatic and economic dimensions is crucial for the project’s viability.

The ongoing attacks on the CPEC project are primarily carried out by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which serves as an umbrella organisation for the Baloch separatists. These separatist factions argue that Pakistan’s deepening ties with China have failed to yield benefits for Balochistan province; instead, they characterise the engagement as a form of exploitation. As a result, they target CPEC facilities, Chinese personnel and the security personnel safeguarding them, employing a variety of terrorist tactics.

Beyond the BLA’s activities, other terrorist outfits such as Islamic State Khorasan, Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan (TJP) have also launched attacks, particularly in border provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Despite denials of direct ties between the Taliban regime in Kabul and these terrorist outfits, Pakistan has highlighted a surge in terrorism within its borders since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, and demanded that Afghan territories be denied to terrorist operatives.

Both Pakistan and China must find a solution to alleviate the security concerns surrounding the fate of their economic corridor project. The CPEC is not merely a linear investment pathway; it embodies broader regional and global linkages from Xinjiang to the Arabian Sea. Finding the path to resolving the security issues requires a joint effort from Pakistan and China.

China’s “five principles of peaceful coexistence” calls for non-interference in the domestic affairs of others. From its perspective, the Baloch separatist issue is Pakistan’s concern. Therefore, Pakistan must shoulder the bulk of responsibility in combating domestic terrorism, especially when it comes to local groups like the BLA.

Nevertheless, safeguarding China’s national interests in Pakistan, including its citizens and assets, necessitates close intelligence and security collaboration with the Pakistani government. While the presence of Chinese security personnel in foreign lands may seem unusual, it’s a delicate arrangement essential for maintaining stability.

Presently, private Chinese security firms, together with Pakistani special security divisions, handle these duties, but there’s an urgent need to transition to a more professional approach. Beyond the BLA, addressing security threats in the broader Afghanistan-Pakistan nexus could benefit from a diplomatic endeavour where China plays a pivotal role, leveraging its permanent seat in the UN Security Council and pursuing pragmatic relations with Kabul.

Given that China is also a neighbour to Afghanistan, this matter isn’t solely about the fate of CPEC; it also involves Beijing taking long-term measures for its own border security.

China is taking significant strides towards this objective. An exemplary move was last year’s 25-year oil extraction deal with Afghanistan. Moreover, as part of its engagement with Afghanistan, China may pursue projects under the Belt and Road Initiative that promise substantial social benefits in Afghan territory.

Alongside this, a diplomatic strategy aimed at increasing deterrence against groups like the TJP and TTP, which share an ideological alignment with the Taliban government, could be implemented.

China is one of the most proactive players in bilateral diplomacy with Afghanistan. The reception of former Taliban spokesman Bilal Karimi as a special envoy in Beijing last November reflected this diplomatic climate.

From Pakistan’s perspective, it is crucial not to take a back seat in the diplomatic engagement with the Taliban and to maintain an active presence in the trilateral dialogue with China. India, on the other hand, seems to be stepping out of its comfort zone, or perhaps accepting a new reality, by gradually resuming its relations with the Taliban to find regional and bilateral cooperation avenues and to offer humanitarian aid.

Pakistan, which used to be the Taliban’s principal backer, is facing a degradation in its relations with Kabul, as disappointed hopes and unrealistic expectations cloud judgment on both sides.

In any case, Islamabad would be unwise to burn bridges with Kabul. Pakistani officials must be pragmatic. While not officially recognising the Taliban government, they must acknowledge the reality that the Taliban is the sole authority in Afghan territories. This could be done while simultaneously asking Kabul to help combat anti-Pakistan terrorist groups.

It must be noted that the Belt and Road Initiative is not simply about erecting infrastructure and then departing; it aims to leave a lasting imprint and cultivate China’s soft power. Rectifying any unfair distributions of the socio-economic benefits is crucial, as this not only addresses local grievances but also reshapes social perceptions. Therefore, China must make a greater effort to address local grievances and entice Pakistanis away from separatist groups like the BLA.

Finally, the security challenges stemming from terrorism are not unique to Pakistan. Today, it is a problem encountered by many projects seeking to enhance regional and global interconnectedness, whether in the operational or planning stages.

The fate of initiatives like the IndiaMiddle East-Europe Economic Corridor announced at last year’s G20 summit in New Delhi is an example; the project faces serious setbacks after Israel’s military onslaught on Gaza. Meanwhile, attacks initiated by the Yemeni rebel Houthis, particularly in the Red Sea, continue to pose a threat to maritime trade.

Such concerns have always existed, but what is crucial is devising effective solutions to address them.

China must make a greater effort to address local grievances and entice Pakistanis away from separatist groups

Burak Elmali is a researcher at TRT World Research Centre in Istanbul