US, Chinese commitments over disputed waters face tough test

South China Sea tensions likely to increase with leaders of Philippines and Japan meeting Biden in Washington for unprecedented summit

US-China ties are about to sail into choppy waters as military tensions in the South China Sea approach a boiling point. Growing fears in the escalating dispute over the contested Second Thomas Shoal between China and the Philippines make it the most likely flashpoint in the event of an armed conflict between the two superpowers.

China appears to have temporarily gained an upper hand with its “grey zone” tactics, including the use of water cannons, but the Philippines, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, has remained defiant, intent on fighting back while tilting decisively towards Washington.

Aside from plans to grant the United States access to more Philippine military bases – some strategically located near Taiwan – Manila on Sunday conducted joint exercises with the US, Japan and Australia near the contested waters.

In a statement, the Southern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) slammed the four-nation drills as “military activities that mess up the situation in the South China Sea and create hotspots”, adding that things were fully “under control”.

Beijing has also geared up for a possible conflict, organising several recent live-fire naval drills and on Sunday “joint naval and air combat patrols”, while accusing Manila of provocations and playing “the victimised underdog” in an attempt to win international sympathy.

Tensions will heat up further this week as Marcos is expected to unveil plans with US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to launch joint naval patrols in the South China Sea during an unprecedented summit in Washington tomorrow.

Amid the mounting friction, Biden is expected to voice “serious concern” about China’s alleged intimidation tactics at the summit and stress that the 1951 US-Philippine Mutual Defence Treaty applies to the Second Thomas Shoal dispute, according to the

Financial Times on Monday.

Citing unnamed American officials, the newspaper said Biden had raised his “deep concern” about the stand-off between Beijing and Manila during a phone conversation last week with President Xi Jinping, but neither side mentioned it in their official readouts.

A statement indicating Washington’s direct involvement in China’s territorial dispute with the Philippines would no doubt be viewed by Beijing as a provocative move that threatens to further ratchet up the tension.

US Indo-Pacific Command chief John Aquilino last month said Manila could invoke the treaty if a sailor or a member of its military was killed as China continued “to execute belligerent, dangerous and aggressive” actions against Filipino troops and fishermen in the disputed waters.

China’s defence ministry spokesman, Wu Qian, said Washington was trying to get the Philippines to provoke China “out of its own selfish interests”.

Wu warned Beijing would not sit idly by if the US attempted to use the treaty with the Philippines to threaten and coerce China.

So now comes the real test of the joint commitments by American and Chinese leaders about not seeking a new cold war or conflict. Arguably, it is not really about how often leaders from the rival powers meet or what they promise each other, but rather if and how they plan to honour their own words.

Fortunately, both Beijing and Washington appear to be on high alert about the danger of a looming crisis in the South China Sea.

For the first time in nearly two years, US and Chinese defence officials met last week in

Hawaii to hold a rare military dialogue on preventing unsafe and aggressive ship and aircraft incidents.

Aside from the resumption of regular official dialogue, both countries have also relied on unofficial, backchannel diplomacy to reverse the spiral of hostility and mistrust between them.

In one such instance last week, China’s former envoy to Washington, Cui Tiankai, travelled to the US last week along with a delegation of retired Chinese military officers and discussed the South China Sea tensions with Aquilino, according to the Financial Times.

Fortunately, both Beijing and Washington appear to be on high alert about the danger of a looming crisis